comsc US Politics | AMERICAblog News: Federal Reserve
Join Email List | About us | AMERICAblog Gay
Elections | Economic Crisis | Jobs | TSA | Limbaugh | Fun Stuff

Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

The Fed is "afraid to do its job" for fear of right-wing criticism



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
The headline quote is Krugman talking; my brief comment below. Remember — the Fed by law has twin mandates:
  • Low inflation consistent with economic growth
  • Low unemployment
The current zero-interest-rate environment serves bondholders and kills fixed incomes. But that policy preference — sacrificing seniors to the bond market Bigs — is at least within the mandate.

But this is not a low-unemployment environment (the other mandate). What's a Fed to do?

Here's Krugman on that:
[M]y sense is that [Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's] latest testimony, in which he declared that the Fed has the power to take action, that the economy is in really bad shape, but declined to, you know, actually take action, has left even his usual defenders more or less speechless.

It really makes no sense — except in terms of politics. ...
So Bernanke says that the Fed has the power to act, but won't. Why won't the Fed "do its job"? Krugman's explanation:
fear of being accused of helping Obama
That's Krugman, and the comment is damning. (Remember, Krugman knows Bernanke personally. Bernanke was once Krugman's dept chair at Princeton.)

The implications of this are terrible. It means (a) that the "independent Fed" actually is helping Obama — by shielding him from right-wing criticism. And (b) that the "opposition party" is leading the Democrats around by the nose.

But if you think that's bad, there's a worse explanation — The Fed is sacrificing the entire economy (and everyone in it) to serve the top .01%, including the banks, who need low-interest Fed-sourced borrowing to survive.

After all, the current situation is unsustainable. No demand, no recovery. No jobs, no demand. Q.E.D. (Latin for "thus it is destroyed").

Your pick. I think Krugman, as always, is just a tad generous. Me, a little less so.

GP

To follow or send links: @Gaius_Publius Read the rest of this post...

Elizabeth Warren calls for Jamie Dimon's resignation from Fed



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
For those wondering why we have such a failed banking system, take a look at how it works. People like Jamie Dimon are sitting on the board of the NY Federal Reserve, the board that is supposed to be keeping an eye on Wall Street. Tim Geithner was schmoozed by Wall Street and bought into their lies, just as NY Fed presidents before and after. The relationship between banks and those tasked with oversight are too cozy.

Warren is right to ask for Dimon to step down, but that should be a minimum. The days of close and friendly relationships between the feds and the banks needs to end. That system has run its course and needs major reform. Bloomberg, speaking with Elizabeth Warren:
“After the biggest financial crisis in generations, the American people are frustrated that Wall Street has still not been held accountable and does not appear to consider itself responsible,” she said. “Dimon should resign from his post at the New York Fed to send a signal to the American people that Wall Street bankers get it and to show that they understand the need for responsibility and accountability.”
Read the rest of this post...

Krugman calls out Ben Bernanke—"he's been assimilated by the Borg"



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
This is another state of the Krugman post. You and I, flies on the insider walls, know that Ben Bernanke is a full professor at Our Betters U. — in other words, deeply involved in running his chunk of the State for the lords and ladies who govern us. Like all retainers Bernanke works for a living, but as Chairman of the Fed he's very high up.

Paul Krugman is now acknowledging the same thing, and becoming less and less collegial in the process. Why do I say "less collegial"? Because Krugman and Bernanke are fellow academics; in fact, Bernanke used to be Krugman's boss at Princeton.

As you read the following, remember that the Fed has twin legal mandates — low inflation (for the money crowd) and low unemployment (for the masses). In reality, of course, the Fed works only for the money crowd, keeping their pockets lined.

Krugman recently called him on that in the magazine piece linked below, and Bernanke has responded. As Krugman tells the tale [bracketed inserts mine]:
Ben Bernanke responds to my magazine piece; as I see it, in effect he declared that he has been assimilated by the Fed Borg:
I guess the, uh, the question is, um, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to, uh, achieve a slightly increased pace of reduction in the unemployment rate? ...

To risk that asset [by "asset" he means "low inflation," though he's actually referring to the money crowd's well-lined pockets], for, what I think would be quite tentative and, uh, perhaps doubtful gains [by "gains" he means "work and food for the masses"], on the real side would be an unwise thing to do [because the world is ruled by "wisdom" and not, say, "greed"].
Notice the framing — “a slightly increased pace of reduction in the unemployment rate”. It’s basically an assertion that we’re doing all right[.] ... Disappointing stuff.
In other words, Bernanke is saying, Why trade a known-bad like inflation for something as ephemeral as improved employment? After all, my friends are fully employed right now.

So much for Bernanke. But again, this post isn't about the Ben — he's a known made man already. This is about the Krugman, who dares to say so using his Times blog-inches.

Thanks, Professor. And welcome. Soon you'll be as radical as you were in 2003, when Bush was king and we were still naïve.

GP

(To follow on Twitter or to send links: @Gaius_Publius) Read the rest of this post...

Fed president: Top 5 banks should be broken up



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
This is no way for Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher to help get himself a high paying job in Big Finance. He should be finding excuses for why the largest US banks should get a free pass (and a free ride) on regulation that would protect the American taxpayer like most involved in the process. That way he can be just like former Obama economist Peter Orszag or perhaps the the soon-departing Tim Geithner, who will probably go to Wall Street when he steps down. The revolving door between Washington and Wall Street is the path to riches for those who love the fleecing of America, so Fisher needs to catch up on how the game is played. Someone needs to step in and help Fisher with his career killing words.
The financial crisis has left the five biggest banks even more powerful than before, he told an event in Mexico City. "After the crisis, the five largest banks had a higher concentration of deposits than they did before the crisis," he said. "I am of the belief personally that the power of the five largest banks is too concentrated."
Read the rest of this post...

Federal Reserve chose winners of government bond auctions



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Take a guess who came out on top? If you guessed the big Wall Street players who had to be saved from extinction on the taxpayer dime you would be correct. Sorry folks, but this is not free market capitalism. Washington really needs to quit deciding who is going to win on Wall Street or else we will always be at the mercy of a short list of companies. Why is welfare for the poor bad but welfare for the richest of the rich somehow acceptable?
The Federal Reserve secretly selected a handful of banks to bid for debt securities acquired by taxpayers in the U.S. bailout of American International Group Inc., and the rest of Wall Street is wondering what happened to the transparency the central bank said it was committed to upholding. “The exclusivity by which the process has shut out smaller dealers is a little un-American,” said David Castillo, head of sales and trading at broker Further Lane Securities LP in San Francisco, who said he would have liked to participate. “It seems odd that if you want to get the best possible price that it wouldn’t be open to anyone who wants to put in the most competitive bid.” After inviting more than 40 broker-dealers to take part in a series of auctions last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York asked only Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and Barclays Plc (BARC) to bid on the full $13.2 billion of bonds offered in two sales over the past month. The central bank switched to a less open process after traders blamed the regular, more public disposals for damaging prices in 2011. This week, Goldman Sachs bought $6.2 billion of bonds in an auction.
Read the rest of this post...

Laughing at Federal Reserve meetings increased as bubble neared



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
If only the joke wasn't on everyone other than Wall Street.

Even today, there's a complete disconnect between the political class and the rest of the country who are still fuming over the easy ride for the people who caused the crisis. Everyone has a laugh at big meetings but in this case, the coziness of the Federal Reserve is something that should disturb everyone. They were asleep at the wheel and blew it. It's time to gut the Fed and bring in people who are much more serious about protecting the best interest of the public and not just the banks and bankers. The public is stuck with this poor excuse for an economy and if we're through it by 2020 we should feel lucky. Ha, ha, isn't this funny?
The blog, The Daily Stag Hunt, tracked the times “laughter” was recorded by the Fed’s stenographer during the FOMC meetings. In 2001, the FOMC averaged 16.5 moments of guffaws per meeting. In 2006, there were, on average, 44 outbreaks of laughter. As found by the blogger, one of the more TV sitcom-like moments came during the Fed’s January 2006 meeting when then-Vice Chairman Tim Geithner said to the departing Greenspan during his last gathering: “I’d like the record to show that I think you’re pretty terrific, too. [Laughter] And thinking in terms of probabilities, I think the risk that we decide in the future that you’re even better than we think is higher than the alternative.[Laughter] With that, the economy looks pretty good to us, perhaps a bit better than it did at the last meeting. With the near-term monetary policy path that’s now priced into the markets, we think the economy is likely to grow slightly above trend in ’06 and close to trend in ’07.”
Read the rest of this post...

Enough with the bashing of the Federal Reserve



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
I am tired of all the ignorant Fed-bashing. Sure, they do some things that aren't what some of us might have chosen, but without their actions over the past 4 years we would be up the creek without a paddle. Ben Bernanke may not be a progressive, but neither is he anything like a movement conservative. He is, in fact, a nerd who has spent almost his entire life studying monetary policy.

A little history will help here. I don't think most people who go around hating the Fed know why it was created in the first place. Back about a century ago we had a financial panic (NOTE FROM JOHN: 1907 to be exact, I had incorrectly added "1929" to the post when editing - sorry). That meant everyone was selling financial assets like crazy out of fear that the financial system would collapse and then they wouldn't be worth anything. It wasn't that most banks were actually unable to survive in the long term - they just couldn't survive everyone withdrawing their money at the same time because if they tried to sell their financial assets to cover the withdrawals they would be selling them into a panicked market for way less than they were really worth.

With no Fed on the scene the whole system was in danger of collapse. The savior of the day was none other than JP Morgan. Yes, that JP Morgan, who was the only person around with enough cash to buy all those financial assets so that banks could remain solvent. He bought up all those assets at rock bottom prices, was hailed as a hero and then sold them after the panic was over for far, far more than he paid for them.

The politicians of the day thought this was a bad idea for two reasons.  First, there might not always be a JP Morgan around to save the day. Second, in a democracy it is a bad idea to give that much power (not to mention profit) to a single person or entity. The Federal Reserve was created to perform the function JP had performed.  So when markets panicked and we needed to buy up shaky assets at a low price, and hold them until they matured, or until the panic was over, we could count on our own public institution to do it. In fact, the public institution could do it better because, unlike JP, the profits from buying panic-sale assets and holding them wouldn't go to a private individual. And more importantly, the Fed has unlimited ability to buy-up shaky bonds since they run the printing presses for money.

Lets be clear what is going on in a panic.  Large speculators are making a bet that the system will go down.  They are selling, selling, selling in hopes that the system will collapse and they can buy everything back cheaper later on. The Fed's job is to stomp all over this bet and make sure that the speculators lose money trying it. In short, the Fed is saying to the speculators: "Mine is bigger than yours, and if you mess with me I will ruin you."

As an aside, this is precisely the problem in Europe. The European Central Bank doesn't have the power to act as a lender of last resort, so the speculators may well be right that they can sell Euro denominated assets and win against the central bank. If the ECB could buy up all those, e.g., Italian government bonds, all the speculators would get burned and the ECB would have a portfolio of Italian bonds worth far more than they paid for them.

So what would happen if we eliminated the Fed? There are really two possibilities. One is that the next time there is a financial panic the system will simply collapse, and we really will have a reprise of the Great Depression. The second (and probably equally likely) possibility is that a modern day JP Morgan will step into the vacuum, save the day, and make obscene profits while vaulting into undisputed control of our financial system. I'll bet Goldman Sachs would be a likely candidate.  How would you feel about that?

So don't get me wrong. I wouldn't do a bank bailout the same way the Republicans under Bush did it. If it were me, we would have nationalized the banks, fired the management, and restructured them as we sold them back into the market. But we would still need a Federal Reserve. Read the rest of this post...

Federal Reserve transcripts show extreme cluelessness



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
It's a wonder anyone on the board who was so far off still has a job at the Federal Reserve. Even worse, how is Tim Geithner running the US Treasury and how is Ben Bernanke still the Fed president? This wasn't a small miss, but a massive miss.

The problem is that they were all ordinary, mainstream thinkers so of course they dismissed analysis from outsiders who questioned the building problems. The Fed board is much too insulated from the real world. If nothing else, these transcripts from 2006 show that we need to also reform the Fed, to allow more outside thinking. They were falling over themselves to congratulate Alan Greenspan on his way out and completely missed the crisis that was coming. As we saw after 9/11, how badly does one have to screw up in Washington to lose a job? LA Times:
"We believe that, absent some large, negative shock to perceptions about employment and earned income, the effects of the expected cooling in housing prices are going to be modest," said Timothy F. Geithner, the current Treasury secretary, who then was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. When Geithner was finished, Bernanke asked, to a round of laughter, "Anything to report on co-op prices in Manhattan?" "As in many cases, I am not sure what you can take from the anecdote, but I guess some people say that you see a little of the froth dissipating," Geithner replied. "But I don't think the adjustment is acute.
Yeah, that's a funny one. Too bad the joke was on the rest of the country. Read the rest of this post...

Obama nominates two new Fed board members



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Since the GOP rejected a Nobel economist for not being qualified last year, there has been a lot of debate over who will replace that candidate. With one of Bush's board members finishing early next year, Obama has chosen one economist who supports the Bernanke quantitative easing programs and another who served under Bush Sr. How inspiring. Since the White House is much too afraid to take a stand on actual economic policy, they've been relying on Bernanke to pump money into Wall Street in the belief that the cash will somehow trickle down. It doesn't and it hasn't. The two nominations help maintain the status quo which helps nobody other than Wall Street. Thanks again for nothing.
Jerome Powell, an attorney who was a Treasury undersecretary for former President George H.W. Bush, and Jeremy Stein, a Harvard University economist who has advised the current administration, are Obama’s picks. Pairing candidates who served under both parties may help ease approval by a Senate where the Democrats’ majority narrowed last year, letting Republicans block administration nominees. The Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors has two vacancies. While the term of Elizabeth Duke, an appointee of President George W. Bush, expires Jan. 31, she can continue to serve until a successor is appointed. Referring to the nominees, Obama said today in a statement that “their distinguished backgrounds and experience coupled with their impressive knowledge of economic and monetary policy make them tremendously qualified.”
Read the rest of this post...

Why the US and France are credit risks and the UK is not



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Christian Noyer, the chairman of the French central bank is complaining that Britain's bonds should be downgraded rather than those of France because the UK economy is in worse shape.

I am not an economics major, but I have had enough experience of the bond markets to know that a bond rating is an estimate of the risk of default. UK bonds have a high rating because the UK borrows in its own currency. There is no risk of default because however short of cash the government might be, the Bank of England will always print more. This is not a painless option, increasing the money supply will feed inflation and reduce the value of the pound relative to other currencies. But this represents a currency risk rather than a default risk.

France does not borrow in its own currency because it does not have one. France has to borrow in Euro and if they run short the only way they can make more is to either persuade every other member of the Eurozone of the need to print it or leave the Euro and reintroduce their own national currency. That will not happen unless the Germans either suddenly lose their fear of inflation or leave the Eurozone. So whatever the state of the UK economy, there is a real possibility that France might default on Euro bonds while a UK default is a purely theoretical possibility.

If the reason that the UK gets a AAA rating is that it borrows in its own currency, why then (beyond politicing) did S&P give the US a lower rating?

The sole cause of the US ratings downgrade is the US Republican party. Not the deficit, not the debt, not the state of the economy: The Republican party. Even though the US borrows in its own currency, the markets have suddenly discovered that the US Treasury might not be able to print as much money as it needs to repay its debts. And the reason that it has made this discovery is the GOP attempt to use the debt ceiling limit for political brinksmanship. The effect of this discovery is that a US default is no longer a purely theoretical possibility, there is a real (albeit small) chance that the brinksmanship will lead to catastrophe.

A divided government in which the executive and legislative powers are held by opposing parties cannot exist in the UK parliamentary system and so a manufactured political crisis cannot result in a default as we now know it can in the US. Read the rest of this post...

Matt Stoller: How the Fed fought dirty & Grayson fought back



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
There's a fascinating story by Matt Stoller writing at Naked Capitalism about the Fed, Alan Grayson, and how the corrupt system works as seen from the inside.

After an introduction with some thoughts about the Fed and its power — and also the nature of American money — Stoller talks about his experience with the Fed and Congressman Alan Grayson. (Stoller served as Grayson's Senior Policy Advisor when Grayson was in the House and was personally involved in Grayson's audit-the-Fed battles.)

The story itself starts here (my emphasis):
[I]t is important to put something on the record about the Federal Reserve’s politics. From 2009 onward, the Fed fought bitterly and fought dirty to prevent any disclosure whatsoever. I’ve never told this story before, about the Fed’s nasty and dishonorable lobbying campaign against a Fed audit. ...
Stoller then backgrounds the tale with instances of how amazingly deferential everyone in Congress is to the Fed, from staffers to Barney Frank. I'll skip that section, but please do read. It explains the way the Fed got action in the 2008 crisis.

After that discussion, enter Alan Grayson and his tale. Sweet — here's a taste, the first few paragraphs of the meat of this great post:
The story of how I became involved with the Fed audit fight starts with a semi-random event. I connected with Grayson in the fall of 2008, when a Democratic landslide seemed imminent; he hired me to work on policy. My title was “Senior Policy Advisor”, a Lake Wobegon-ish line used on the Hill to designate catch-all advisor (there are no “Junior Policy Advisor” titles). Soon after, in the beginning of the session, he got put on the Financial Services Committee, because that’s where Democratic leadership put a lot of freshmen in swing districts. We had no other policy staffers yet, which caused some chatter of the “did you hear the only person they have working on policy is a BLOGGER?!?!” variety. Still, despite my handicap of having written stuff on the internet, I ended up covering the Financial Services Committee in my issue portfolio.

Our specific fight with the Fed started in January, 2009, when I put a stack of blog posts and Bloomberg articles on the trillion dollar expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet in front of Grayson to prep him for a hearing with Fed Vice Chair Don Kohn. It was Grayson’s second Congressional hearing. And what I didn’t know, and what Kohn was about to find out, was that Grayson was basically the best cross-examiner in Congress and fluent in central banking parlance and international investing. Members get just five minutes to ask questions, and when the witnesses are important, they can’t ask for more time. As I noted before, Barney was especially aggressive about preventing members from getting more time, especially when the witnesses were from the Fed and the questions were probing.

But Grayson made his time count. Kohn never saw it coming – Grayson asked him which banks received the $1.2 trillion in spending from the Fed. The scene was electric, and fortunately, it’s preserved on Youtube. Grayson would ask a question, and when Kohn didn’t answer, simply repeat the question. Who got the money? Did Credit Suisse get the money? Citigroup? Etc. The droning contrast of Kohn’s evasive answers, combined with Grayson’s clear questions, was an entertaining metaphor for the power of a cold and enormous bureaucracy up against a scrappy iconoclast. As Kohn got tripped up, and confused spending and lending, bored observers in the committee room woke up and note. One experienced journalist told me that Kohn is a master of these hearings, and it was shocking to see him embarrassed by a random freshman legislator The video went viral, because Grayson was the only member who had theatrically focused on what Mark Pittman of Bloomberg reported, a remarkable and unprecedented expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. And Grayson was fun about it. After the hearing, banks began calling our office, afraid that we knew something about their relationship with the Fed. We didn’t, which they quickly realized. But it turns out they had good reason to worry, since they were in fact borrowing trillions.
This is just the beginning; please do read the rest of this story. Don't miss the part about the pro-Fed clause that couldn't be killed; it re-emerges phoenix-like from its many ashes, time and time again.

This is a great insider account with lots of take-aways.

Here are mine. First, note what it took to get this done:

■ Both an inside game and an outside game (neither alone would have worked)
■ An extraordinary individual — Grayson — one of the few Dems uncorrupted enough to actually use his power
■ Tremendous effort, persistence, concentration

And still, the victory was a small one, though real.

Next, notice what they were working against:

■ Institutions geared to automatically favor the Elite
■ Individuals willing to use those institutions
■ Enormous deference by those in "power" (elected types and their staffs) to those in Power (here, the banker-owned Federal Reserve)

So my first take-away is, third parties don't work, since they are "outside games" only. By the time the "outside" movement gets strong enough to elect a 3rd party candidate, their goals aren't usually electoral — that many angry people start carrying pitchforks.

I'll have more on this. But all in all, it sure looks like, if you really Hope for Change, Obama has to be primaried.

The trick is to engineer that.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Don’t politicize the Fed



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Our co-blogger Steven Kyle, professor of economics at Cornell, weighs in on the news that the Fed secretly loaned billions to banks without the public's knowledge (Steve is indisposed so he emailed me the post):
I am not on the same page as most dems and progressives on this. I think it would be an absolutely terrible idea to make the Fed subject to the political process.  Every country that has done that has ended up with inflation because politicians almost never want to raise interest rates. There is a very good reason these kinds of loans are secret - publicity could very well provoke the very runs on the banks they are trying to prevent.

People dont realize it, but it is the JOB of the Fed to loan money to banks that need it. There is nothing sinister (or at least nothing more so than usual) about the Fed lending money to banks during a financial crisis. Sure, we could all go down the Ron Paul path and imagine that they are doing nefarious things, but believe me we would be far worse off if the Fed let the system melt down. And by the way, it isn't taxpayer money they are loaning out - The Fed is the entity that creates money in the first place.

Having said that it is absolutely true that more regulation is needed. And the Fed (particularly under Greenspan but also under Bernanke to some extent) dropped the ball on doing the regulation they needed to do. But part of the reason for that is that they knew they wouldn't get backing from the political process and also the Repubs tend to put people with an anti-regulatory mindset in these jobs. We are STILL waiting for a real regulation bill to get through Congress. Personally, I dont think one will get through and we are all set up for the next crisis (which will come eventually). Maybe we need a bigger crisis to make it happen.
More on this in a second post later today. Read the rest of this post...

Bernanke: Fed may need to pop asset bubbles



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
As in the asset bubbles that the Bernanke's Fed policy has created?
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday that central banks may need to resort to monetary policy to combat asset bubbles, although regulation should be a first line of defense.

"The possibility that monetary policy could be used directly to support financial stability goals, at least on the margin, should not be ruled out," he said at a conference at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.
Read the rest of this post...

Bernanke offers some sympathy for Wall Street protesters



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Yeah, he's probably worried they're coming after him next. Still, this is interesting. The protests have moved from "oh those crazy kids" to "seriously credible" in a matter of days. And it may all be due to one NY police officer who thought it would be neat to pepper spray in the face a bunch of peaceful young woman just standing there doing nothing.  That caught the world's attention. Read the rest of this post...

Bank of America Web Site down, coincidence or hacked?



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Nobody seems to know why the Bank of America Web Site has been down. Was it due to hackers irate at the new $5 debit card fee or is the timing of the outage merely coincidence?

From a security point of view it does not actually matter. If the site it down, it is down. For a major commerce site to suffer an unscheduled outage of this type is a major embarrassment no matter what the cause. That your Web sites are down because you did not plan enough capacity or redundancy does not make it OK.

As a security specialist, I have worked in the payments sector from time to time. The effort by the Fed to reduce the fees charged by banks to merchants was completely justified in my view. The charges that are made through the debit card network should carry absolutely no credit risk for the bank and the fraud risk is entirely the fault of the banks for their bad choice of security technology. Neither risk is sufficient to justify even the 22 cent per transaction fee that will be allowed after the Fed mandated cut. The 44 cents charged is utterly ludicrous.

The Chip and Pin system deployed in Europe and many other parts of the world has practically eliminated card present fraud at a cost of about $1 per card issued plus some infrastructure. There are technical flaws in the particular scheme deployed that I would prefer to see fixed, but it has proved more than sufficient to dramatically reduce fraud.

My email inbox is currently stuffed with mendacious emails on this topic from K-Street lobbyists and their astroturf fronts. Like many a campaign hatched on K-Street it seems to be more about furthering the interests of the lobbyists than their clients. The Republican shills running this campaign will win kudos in their party hierarchy and be rewarded with invitations to prestigious functions, but if they had an ounce of honesty they would have told their client that the effort is futile and will only damage them.

The change in the interchange fee only applies to banks with over $10B in assets. Thus it is unlikely that the smaller banks will be charging fees and the probability that BofA will actually follow through and charge the fee is practically nil. Read the rest of this post...

Naked Capitalism: How markets interpreted the Fed’s Operation Twist as a sign of double dip



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Edward Harrison, a financial commentator at BBC World News, CNBC and elsewhere, writes at Yves Smith's excellent Naked Capitalism site about the recent market roilage and its relationship to the Fed's slightly less recent pronouncements.

Bottom line — he doesn't want to say it doesn't look good (for fear of making it worse), but to him, it doesn't look good.

First, for those who don't know, the Fed did something recently, but not a lot. Paul Krugman summarizes:
OK, the Fed moved. It was a bit stronger than expected — and BB [Fed chair Ben Bernanke] and company stood up to the GOP. But seriously, they’re trying to use a water pistol to stop a charging rhino.
Now Harrison, who takes issue with the "stood up to the GOP" part of Krugman's analysis (my emphases):
• The global economy hit stall speed earlier this year as Europe and the US became susceptible to a double dip at the same time.

• Double dip will likely lead to such severe turbulence politically and economically that cohesion could rip apart in a way that creates depression instead of policy support and muddle through. ...

• The Fed statement yesterday, while initially billed as the post-QE3 meeting statement should now be seen as the Fed reload to find its run-out-of-ammo [my hyphens] meeting. I should stress as I did yesterday that “it’s not that monetary stimulus is completely ineffective. It’s that you must really jam it on ...

• The Fed is not going to jam it on. “the Fed is already feeling political heat from its previous policy actions, so it will allow the economy to slip before it embarks on the next round of asset purchases. Therefore, if and when the next recession hits, debt deflation will take hold. The calls for stimulus will be deafening. And because the Fed will have resisted more aggressive prior action, the Fed will then be forced to be extremely aggressive in its policy response. That is when expanding the balance sheet will be a go and the Fed won’t just buy Treasuries, but a lot of other assets too.” [Roubini: No QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole but QE3 will happen]
There's more in the post — he writes about Europe as well and these are just a few of his points.

My translation: Harrison thinks that the Fed feels the bite of the GOP's attack ("Don't you dare help the economy. That helps Obama and it's therefore political." Shameful, yes?)

Therefore Bernanke will wait until help is desperately needed before acting; then he will act with an evident need in front of him, as protective cover as it were. But that will be too late.

As I noted via Twitter, the Fed may well be trying to parse the partisan banana right down the middle. Harrison seems to agree. If so, the timid Bernanke has decided wait for a problem before gathering the posse.

That problem has a name — double dip. And thus the markets' agitation and all that fear.

However, I've said many times that the Big Boys want to hold the Dow above the magic 10,000; and I believe that Dow 11,000 is the buffer they need to feel comfortable. So don't bet on the downside yet; the Bigs have a lot of their own money at stake. Dow between 10,000 and 11,000 is time to be watchful but not frightened, in my opinion.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Stiglitz: Obama administration and Fed have demonstrated an "inability to make economic judgements"



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
I had the pleasure of befriending Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz and his wife Anya a few years back at a small conference we both attended in Greece.  Joe and Anya happened to be in Paris yesterday (where I still am), and he graciously agreed to an on-camera interview for the blog.  I'm going to be posting the interview in small excerpts to make it more easily digestible.  Here is the first excerpt. (For those curious, the interview took place in the Cafe de la Mairie, across from Saint Sulpice church.)

Stiglitz, when asked if the economy is going to get a lot worse this year and next:
"The way I would put it is, the hopes of the 'green shoots' that were expressed in March, 2009 that then turned to brown later in that year, and again woke up earlier this year, have again been dashed.  So that the administration's, and the Fed's, constant referral to the economy 'on the road to recovery' is another demonstration of their inability to make economic judgments.  Just like the Fed totally misjudged the economy in the period leading up to the recession, totally -- even after the bubble broke, they said the crisis was contained.  Once again the Fed has shown that its ability to make judgments about the economy leaves something to be desired."
Read the rest of this post...

Fed gave $1.2 trillion to aristocracy of American finance



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Bloomberg:
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.
“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.”
Bloomberg also has a dramatic chart which documents these findings. Keep in mind that this lending started in 2008 and continued into 2009.

Equally stunning to the extent to which "the aristocracy of American finance" got bailed out was the extent to which the aristocracies of non-American finance also got bailed out:
It wasn’t just American finance. Almost half of the Fed’s top 30 borrowers, measured by peak balances, were European firms. They included Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, which took $84.5 billion, the most of any non-U.S. lender, and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN), which got $77.2 billion. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holding AG borrowed $28.7 billion, an average of $21 million for each of its 1,366 employees.
Keep in mind while this money was shooting out of a fire hose from the Fed to giant international banks, nothing has been done on a remotely similar scale to help out working Americans. Marcy Wheeler has a good take away from this:
the money the Fed lent out to these highly leveraged risk takers could have paid off (much less merely guaranteed) the 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages that are currently dragging down the American economy.

But instead of offering money to homeowners who would have used it to stay in their homes and sustain their neighborhoods, the Fed instead loaned it to the banks that were leveraged to the hilt.
Additionally, the free money the Fed gave to big banks could have come with a strict requirement that they lend it right back out to Main Street. But it didn't and the economy is still in the crapper three years later.
Read the rest of this post...

Federal Reserve made up their own rules at peak of crisis



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
Friends protecting friends. In theory, the new Dodd-Frank law should make this impossible in the future but the Fed seems to think they are above the law.
And nearly three years after the loans were made, the Fed still hasn’t provided a satisfying answer for why it made loans to the London-based broker-dealer subsidiaries of Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup, as well as the U.S. broker-dealer subsidiaries of Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, according to the Government Accounting Office’s newly released audit of the Federal Reserve’s financial crisis activities.

In September and November of 2008, the Federal Reserve extended credit to the affiliates of these Wall Street firms under terms very similar to those it was making under the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. But because these affiliates were not actually primary dealers, loans under that facility were not officially available.

But the Fed made the loans anyway, citing its powers under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to extend loans in “exigent circumstances.” But it never explained exactly why it decided these loans qualified under this provision.
Read the rest of this post...

Americans saving money again



View Comments | Reddit | Tumblr | Digg | FARK
The good news is that more people are saving cash again. The bad news is that the Federal Reserve is printing money to save Wall Street so the value of it is going down. Thanks again for helping, Ben.
Twice as many Americans are saving more money today than they did before the recession, according to a survey conducted by America's Research Group for CNBC.com.

While Americans were divided sharply between savers and non-savers, the majority of Americans are now saving.

According to the poll, 49.8 percent of those surveyed said they are saving more today, while 44.9 percent said they were not. The rest said they didn't know.
Read the rest of this post...