Palin at the same place in the polls as Hillary?

Nate says no to some people who are claiming that Palin's poll numbers are very close to where Hillary's were going into the primaries, thus arguing that the former Alaska governor could become president. But as Nate notes, among other things, Hillary didn't win. Nate also goes into the numbers to show that Hillary was actually better off in the polls than Palin is now.