It’s part of the nature of things that the more seats you hold in the House of Representatives the more likely you are to lose ground in the next election. With Democrats holding a majority, in other words, by definition a lot of Democrats are representing more-conservative-than-average districts. Nevertheless, CQ reports that the 2010 outlook for Democrats actually looks pretty good and “The only three contests in which CQ Politics rates an advantage to the challenging party are all for seats now held by the Republicans and targeted by the Democrats.” Leading the way is Rep Joseph Cao of New Orleans who’ll face the challenge of running against someone who’s not the scandal-plagued William Jefferson.I worry about Democratic turnout, and how that will affect these predictions. I can imagine a lot of Democrats becoming increasingly uninspired about voting in 2010.
Meanwhile, the geography of the 2010 Senate races is also highly favorable to the Democrats.
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CQ: House Democrats Sitting Pretty for 2010
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