This is exactly what concerns everyone. Each time numbers are chosen and dates are set, everything slips. In the US there are some of the traditional Wall Street cheerleaders who are flogging recovery stories for housing as well as talk of a bottom. There's big talk of big change in a positive direction but in all likelihood we are not going to see a big bounce. The more likely scenario is a slow recovery. Before hyping the next bubble, how about we wait until we see a few good months strung together before getting ahead of the game? The Independent:
The European Commission has revised economic forecasts sharply downwards and pushed recovery predictions out to the second half of 2010 in the face of the "deepest and most widespread recession in the post-war era".
Brussels is now expecting Europe's GDP to contract by 4 per cent this year, twice the 1.8 per cent predicted just three months ago. The slump will also last longer, with a further decline of 0.1 per cent in 2010, compared with earlier forecasts of 0.5 per cent growth.
Of the major EU countries, Germany will fare the worst, with a 5.5 per cent decline in 2009. But the Commission's assessment will also make grim reading for the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The UK economy is expected to lose between 4 and 4.5 per cent in 2009, a far bleaker prediction than the 3.5 per cent forecast in Mr Darling's Budget. Italy is also expected to contract by up to 4.5 per cent, France and Spain by 3 per cent.
