Would the liberal base of the Democratic party walk next election

In an interesting story from The Hill on whether there truly is liberal dissatisfaction with President Obama and Democrats, and whether liberals would truly walk, come the next election, if they get ticked of enough. This is a tough issue to analyze. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that the base will always be with you at election time because they have nowhere else to go. Is that true?

1. Back in 2000, had fewer Democrats voted for Ralph Nader, Al Gore might have been president. So, even if "not very many" of the base would walk, sometimes all you need is a few percent.

2. I think the effect will be more profound during the mid-term elections, in 2010, when lots of good Democrats don't think about voting anyway. And this time around, they'll be voting for what exactly? To support a House and Senate that many Democrats feel is too weak. Democratic voters fell for the "all we need is a few more Democrats in order to enact our agenda" line once already. I doubt they'll be motivated by it again. Democrats may not vote for Republicans. But in their minds they'll assume the Dems will retain power even without their vote - after all, most people think that an individual vote doesn't matter - so people will vote their conscience. I think a lot of Democrats will simply not vote in 2010, or they'll vote for Mickey Mouse or some other third party candidate, simply to register a protest - not realizing that collectively their no-votes could add up.

3. Finally, there's fundraising. I don't know a lot of Democrats who are very excited about giving to the party right now. Will they eventually? Perhaps. But certainly not as early as they would have in other times. And if early money makes yeast, per EMILY's List's mantra, then late money makes Republicans. Democrats can't afford for people to get involved in the election only in the final weeks.

Much more after the jump...

The party also argues that, even if liberals are disaffected, they'll come back once health car reform and other major initiatives are passed:

Senior officials at the White House and in Congress say liberals will rally to their side once healthcare reform and other major initiatives are passed. And some Democratic pollsters say their research shows Democratic voters are solidly behind Obama, even though he has slipped among Republican and independent voters.

A senior Democrat familiar with discussions at the White House said there will be plenty of time to energize liberals next year.

“This is not a time to worry about the base; we’ll have all of the election year to do that,” said the Democratic source. “We’ll have a long list of accomplishments to present for them to rally around.”

I think this is a complete misunderstanding of the problem. People aren't upset that nothing is getting done. They're upset that what is getting done is unnecessarily weak and watered down. For example:

* 40% of the stimulus package was handed over to the GOP in the form of tax cuts, in exchange for 3 Republican votes.

* The health care bill may be heading towards passage, but I don't know anyone on the left who is happy about it's current form. Then there are gay rights issues.

* A lot of gay voters aren't upset that nothing is being done, they're upset that what is being done is half-a-loaf (moving from a promise to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell to a simple commitment to "change" the law, whatever that means), or worse, outright hurting the community (defending anti-gay laws like DOMA in court).

Nita Chaudhary of MoveOn echoes this sentiment:

White House officials could not excite liberal voters merely by waving a long list of accomplishments, Chaudhary warned, saying the details of healthcare reform and other legislation would determine the response.

“It’s a dangerous assumption that substance doesn’t matter,” she said.

Finally, there are those who simply don't believe that a significant portion of Democrats are getting peeved at the administration and Congress.

John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster, said that Obama has an approval rating in the “high 80s” among voters who identify themselves as Democrats.

“There’s a big difference between some complaining in the vacuum that is Washington, D.C., versus the base of Democrats nationally,” said Anzalone. “The notion that liberals are unhappy is a non-truth.”

I think that's dangerously naive. The old national organizations were in Washington. The new ones aren't. MoveOn isn't in Washington. Most of the gay Netroots aren't - most the Netroots in general isn't in DC. People are pissed. And they live all over the country, and are reflecting what they're hearing in their own communities. If the party wants to listen to pollsters who tell them that this is all just inside-the-beltway bellyaching, then we can wait until 2010 and see what happens. But at the rate it's going, I fear it's not going to be pretty. We have a chance to address these problems now. We shouldn't be sweeping them under the rug.