In today's column, Chris Cilizza does an analysis of polls to see if the Democratic wave is building. He found that the average lead for Democrats in generic polls is 14.8% and asks the key question on the mind of every political junkie:
So is now the time to conclude that a Democratic wave is building that will sweep Republicans out of a House majority in November?There are still 12 long weeks to go til election day.
The answer, according to Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, is a guarded yes.
"If you take an average of the last three or four polls, because any one can be an outlier in either direction, you can determine which way the wind is blowing, and whether the wind speed is small, medium, large or extra-large," said Cook. "The last three generics that I have seen have been in the 18 or 19 point range, which is on the high side of extra large. That suggests the probability of large Democratic gains."
"The generic surely reflects voters dissatisfaction with the President and his party and their inclination to support Democrats in the fall," agreed Rothenberg. "The size of the Democrats' generic advantage also can't be ignored. It too suggests the likelihood of a partisan wave, even though it does not guarantee the fate of any individual Republican incumbent."
