Why I think tomorrow could be a Kerry blow-out

I, like many of you, sometimes have a hard time actually visualizing winning. Not that I don't think we'll win. I do. I just have a hard time believing that Bush will actually be gone in 24 hours. But I think he will be gone, and I don't think it will even be close. Here's why:

Rob in Baltimore has taken you guys through the numbers and the various scenarios, and he has Bush ahead in all of them. But what interests me particularly is the latest Zogby poll, cited below. Zogby says it's a dead tie, Kerry has all of Gore's states, Bush has all of Bush's states, and Florida is a dead heat. That would spell stalemate, but I think it spells a Kerry blowout. Why?

Because we're in a much better position than we were for years ago, and Bush isn't. Let me explain.

1. I personally know several Republicans who voted for Bush in 2000, and who are NOT voting for him now. I've heard tons of similar anecdotes from my friends about their Republican colleagues. There are also a few well-known conservatives like Andrew Sullivan who are now supporting Kerry, and conservative newspapers and magazines that have either endorsed Kerry or REFUSE to endorse Bush (the Detroit paper, the Economist, etc.)

2. I don't know ANYONE who was a Gore supporter in 2000 who isn't supporting Kerry in 2004. Not a soul. We can all name former Bush supporters who are NOT voting for Bush. I can't name a single former Gore supporter who isn't voting for Kerry. Bush has lost some of his support, Kerry hasn't lost a single voter.

3. But couldn't Bush make up the lost supporter elsewhere? Sure, but has he? The religious right? No. The LA Times recently revealed that Bush isn't polling nearly as well with the religious right as he had planned.

4. But what about the GOP getting more votes this time through increased voter turnout? Maybe. But there's every reason to believe Kerry will get at least as big an increase in turnout as Bush, so it's a wash - and actually, I'd say Kerry gets an even GREATER increased turnout as our people HATE Bush, and they don't want to see another election stolen. As many conservative commentators have noted, we hate him a lot more than they love him. That means our increase in turnout should be larger.

5. Finally, there's the Nader voters. He just isn't polling as high this time as in 2000. That means that even with all things being equal, we have more of the Nader voters than we had last time (and last time, at least, Nader took 2 from Gore for every 1 from Bush).

All of that means that even if the nation is still divided, even if the nation is still where it was 4 years ago, Kerry and the Democrats are still better off vis-a-vis 4 years ago than are the Republicans. For that reason, I have a feeling we're gonna whip Bush's ass tomorrow night. And it's not even gonna be close.