Zogby:
Bush v. Kerry
In the first Reuters/Zogby poll in election 2004, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are in a dead heat race for the White House—with President Bush holding a slight edge over Senator Kerry (46%-44%). The telephone sample of 1217 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Wednesday (October 4-6, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-2.9%.
Favorable/Unfavorable
President Bush and Senator Kerry are statistically tied with their favorable ratings (55%-54%) and unfavorable ratings (44%-43%).
Prez Job Performance
President Bush’s overall job performance rating shows a 47% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating.
Right Track, Wrong Track45% country on right track, 48% wrong track
A near majority of voters in the armed forces (50%)... believe that the US is headed on the wrong track.
Bush loses NASCAR fans
When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 44% support the president, while half (50%) still say that it is "time for someone new." The President’s bid for re-election is support by: those in rural areas (57%); small cities (46%); married couples (50%); Protestants (56%); and conservatives (75%). Among those who say that it’s time for someone new are: independents (53%); Hispanics (43%); African-Americans (84%); younger voters (63%); women (52%); and NASCAR fans (52%).
Pollster John Zogby:
"Remember this is larger than Bush vs. Kerry. This is two equal-sized warring nations going into this election. The first set of numbers in our Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll shows this. Kerry leads in the East (48%-44%) and West (49%-42%), while Bush leads in the South (56%-36%). They are tied in the Central-Great Lakes Region at 43% apiece. Please note the higher undecideds in this region which has several battleground states. Also, the initial impact of Edwards in the South seems to have dissipated.
"Kerry leads big among 18-29 year olds (56%-31%) and Bush holds an impressive lead among 30-49 year olds (54%-38%) -- but the two are tied among voters over 50.
"I have stated all year that Bush needs to win among self-identified investor class members by double- digits and he is ahead in this group 51%-42%. He also leads among households with someone currently serving in the military or veteran (52%-39%).
"While Bush is holding on to a 90% support level among Republicans, Kerry receives only 76% of the Democrats. Kerry leads by 5 points among Independents (45%-40%), with a large percentage of undecideds.
"The marriage gap is wide: Bush leads by 13 points among married voters (52%-39%) while Kerry has single voters by 27 points (57%-30%). Kerry leads among voters who hold active passports (49%-42%).
"Interestingly, the two have pretty much the same favorable-unfavorable ratings, revealing how split this nation really is. The President's job performance rating is still negative, though improved (47% positive, 52% negative). But only 44% feel that he deserves re-election to 50% who think it is time for someone new.
"Kerry's edge on the economy is gone. Among those who cite the economy as the top issue, the candidates are in a dead heat --Bush holding a slight edge of 46%-44%. The President also leads among those who cite the war on terror as the top issue (68%-26%) -- but the Senator holds big leads among those who cite education (51%-36%), the war in Iraq (51%-39%), and health care (52%-38%).
"Among undecided voters, only 15% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 39% say it is time for someone new."
