Zogby:
Fresh off one of the highest points of his campaign – a superior performance in the first head-to-head debate against President Bush – Democratic challenger John Kerry not only stopped the slow leak of support for his campaign, but added back some air to the inner tube keeping afloat his run for the White House.
As a result, he remains on top in a still-tight race that shows every indication it may be every bit as close as 2000, with support for Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry teetering within a very slim margin.
Mr. Kerry now leads in the race for Electoral College votes and can now see a path to victory, but it’s still far from his grasp. Needing 270 votes to become the next President, he has coddled together a lead in states that total 278, compared to just 207 for Mr. Bush, the latest collection of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.
The latest group of surveys, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 after the first presidential debate in Coral Gables, Florida, reflects the first substantive drop in Mr. Bush’s fortunes since Mr. Kerry named North Carolina Sen. John Edwards to the Democratic ticket in July.
But unlike the Edwards appointment, this drop was more of Mr. Bush’s own making, as he stumbled and stuttered his way through the first face-to-face, looking and sounding defensive about the one bifurcated issue that has given his campaign muscle all year long – the war in Iraq and the war on terror.
Mr. Kerry lost the lead in none of the nine states he controlled in the interactive surveys of Sept. 21, and grabbed tiny leads in two states that had been counted in the Bush column in the last round – Colorado, with nine Electoral votes, and Nevada, which boasts five.
Two states remained undecided because they are so close – Florida, with 27 votes, and Arkansas, with six – and are not counted in the Electoral College tally in this report.
The biggest news is the third state that is now also too close to call: all-important Ohio, a Midwestern bellwether that carries 20 votes for the winner. Mr. Bush had lead here, at times handsomely, but that lead is now so much wind through his fingers.
The importance of Ohio cannot be understated: never has a Republican won the White House without carrying Ohio. Never. Though the latest collection of polls shows Mr. Kerry doesn’t need Ohio or Florida to win the race, should he capture either one, the game is over. Mr. Bush won both four years ago and, even then, just eked out the win after five inglorious weeks of political wrangling almost unprecedented in our history.
The shift in the polls, however small, underscores the importance of the remaining debates between Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush. If Mr. Bush again shows poorly, he may kick just enough undecideds into the Kerry campaign by convincing them that he is just not up to the task of another four-year term. If he shows strong, this race could revert back to its complexion of a couple weeks ago, when Mr. Bush had a slow but steady drive building in the grass roots.
There is hope for the incumbent. Mr. Bush remains close in several states that were won by Democrat Al Gore four years ago, and he leads in the toss-up states of Missouri and North Carolina, the home of Democratic vice presidential hopeful John Edwards.
This is the shape of the current political landscape: Mr. Kerry, always known as a strong campaign closer, holds a lead heading into the last crucial weeks. It may take an extraordinary set of circumstances, like a knock-out punch in one of the two remaining debates, for the President, known as a disciplined campaign plodder, to climb back into this one in time.
Mr. Bush is known more for his kidney punches than his rainmakers to the jaw. Yet, Mr. Kerry has also proven this year that he is one of the worst at preserving a lead. Forget winning. This race could boil down to a question of which candidate manages not to lose as badly as his opponent.
Another point. Because there was a once-per-decade political reapportionment to reflect population shifts after the 2000 election, Mr. Bush theoretically gained strength because more Electoral College votes shifted from Gore Blue states to Bush red states. If the race were run this year exactly as it turned out four years ago, Mr. Bush would win by a 278-260 margin. According to this latest series of polls, he has lost 71 Electoral College votes, compared to where he started this race. That’s more than the total of California and Michigan combined.
But again, 53 votes (Florida, Ohio, and Arkansas – all won by Mr. Bush four years ago) remain too close to call, and others are extremely close, easily within the margin of error. This is by no means a Kerry blowout.
