More Zogby analysis on Kerry being ahead by 3

Zogby:

Pollster John Zogby: "The President did not have a good single day today. He has lost another point over the three days. Polling 44% is not good for an incumbent -- but this is very far from over. Bush seems to be making gains among 18-29 year olds. He now leads among them -- something that has not happened all year until now. I am watching closely to see if that continues. This group also has 9% undecided, which is high for this year. Neither Bush's gains nor the high undecideds are good news for Kerry.

"The President also appears to be getting stronger in the Central/Great Lakes region -- home of Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri. I will continue to watch that. As will I look closely at military families where the President has picked up a few points.

"But the President only leads among married voters by 11 points -- not enough to offset Kerry's strong lead among singles.

"Kerry continues to poll well among low income and union voters. He has improved his standing among women and is running strong among voters who have active passports -- perhaps a sign that he is making his case on foreign policy. Kerry also continues his dominance among Jewish voters. While the sub-group polled is small, the fact that the President never seems to break 20% of this group at least suggests that he might not do as well as his advisors have suggested.

"Ralph Nader continues to slip-- polling only 1.7%. He does receive 5% of Independent voters but is barely a blip on the screen among Democrats. Kerry leads among Independents by 6 points, but 16% of them are undecided.

"Lots more campaign to go. Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many Independents have yet to make up their minds.”