I suspect the last few months, with the President fighting back harder against the Republicans, and his increased willingness to blame them when they deserve it, has helped him with a large cross section of the base. It also hasn't hurt that the Republicans continue to be insane. I still think that enthusiasm is not what it was in 2008, and that enthusiasm matters - for fundraising, for messaging, and for get out the vote. The President has begun to turn things around with the base - and more generally show some backbone, which will help him with independents as well.
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