Joe linked to Nate Silver's article yesterday that suggested costs could run as high as $35 billion in a worst case scenario. The $4.7 billion is the latest estimate before Irene strikes but we all know how unpredictable hurricanes can be. It could be better and it could be worse but either way, this is the last thing the US economy needs right now.
Hurricane Irene is expected to make landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 storm early Saturday, then move up the Eastern Seaboard, where more than 50 million people from the Carolinas to Massachusetts could be in the path of heavy rain and tropical-force winds. The economic impact of the hurricane largely will depend on factors that include the storm's size, where it makes landfall, and the speed at which it's moving when it hits the coast. But experts already are forecasting billions of dollars in losses.
Irene likely to bring high wind, insurance payouts
"It's probably going to be very damaging," said Roger Pielke, a University of Colorado professor and fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.
A computer model of Irene's potential impact puts the estimated damage at $4.7 billion, according to research by Pielke and catastrophe-insurance provider ICAT. That figure, which came from analyzing 27 comparable storms dating back to 1913, includes destruction of homes, cars, public infrastructure and other property caused by high winds and flooding. The number doesn't factor in the added impact of lost sales from shuttered restaurants, quiet casinos, canceled flights and boarded-up stores — all of which could add billions of dollars to the fallout.
