The core of the Republicans’ dilemma is geography. In past campaigns, one or a few candidates have positioned themselves to end the primary race rapidly by dominating several early primary states. But that’s an increasingly remote prospect in 2012, as the leading contenders plant their flags in disparate locations.
Bachmann’s straw poll performance confirmed that she’s the candidate to beat in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, still holds a wide polling lead in New Hampshire and is a solid favorite in Nevada.
Perry, meanwhile, staked a strong claim to South Carolina’s often-decisive primary by announcing his campaign in Charleston, and he’s expected to have considerable regional and cultural appeal in the state.
All that raises the prospect of a primary race in which the early states turn into a kind of three-ring circus, and fail to designate one candidate as the heavy favorite for the nomination. That would turn the primary campaign into a long slog of the kind Democrats saw in 2008, with the surviving candidates scrambling for delegates state by state.
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GOP primary season looking more and more complicated
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