The economy is in trouble. Consumers have known it for a while, as have our best economists (Krugman and Stiglitz). Now, with the Obama administration downgrading GDP growth for the first six months of this year to a dismal 0.4% and 1.3%, the problem is obvious to our elected officials as well.
In response to this "news" that the economy is now on life support, the Obama administration didn't call Drs. Krugman and Stiglitz for help, they called Dr. Kevorkian. Except that with the real Dr. Kevorkian your death is painless. In our case, it's going to be anything but.
You simply do not cut government spending during an economic downturn. The budget deal, any budget deal, must postpone cuts until the economy is back on its feet. And just as important, once the GDP figures were revised down a few days ago, so should have the extent of the cuts in the deal, at least until the economy is again healthy. But that's not what happened. Somehow the cuts grew even larger over the last few days.
Now, GOP economists claim that if the government cuts spending, businesses will flourish across the country by simple magic. That isn't what happens. During the Depression, Hoover cut spending and it made the problem worse. The same thing is happening in the UK today. From Robert Lenzner at Forbes:
Deficit cutting, better known as budget balancing in the 1930-32 period, was the worst possible medicine for the American economy. So was budget balancing in 1937 by FDR, as the New Deal mistakenly turned on a dime and cut back the spending programs that were keeping the formerly unemployed employed in some form or fashion. Each time, the reduction in spending had a multiplier effect on economic activity; downward that is.
Now comes Barack Obama and his and the deficit- cutting team of Boehner and Reid and all their sidekicks. With the economy sagging, unemployment at 9.2%, housing in a virtual depression, the consumer barely increasing his purchases comes the cult of deficit-cutting.
serious action to cut spending cuts the flow of services to the nation; it slows the economy even more; it puts more people out of work. It may boomerang into some repeat of Hoover or Roosevelt in 1937. That could be even more serious than a debt downgrading or even a temporary default.With the President on a quixotic quest to cut as much as he can, and with Harry Reid now trying to outcut even Boehner, and with Nancy Pelosi totally cut out of the negotiations (because apparently girls have cooties), all we've got left is prayer.
You better pray that the Great Stagnation won’t be as bad as the Great Depression.
The economy is in serious trouble. This deficit deal isn't going to do a thing to improve the economy in the near time. It will, however, according to our best minds, cut growth and increase unemployment for years to come. Which is an odd thing to do at any time, let alone right before an election.
In addition, if these talks keep heading the way reports are indicating, it will set the stage for cuts in Medicare and Social Security - two issues the President himself put on the table. So kiss that Democratic election message about "the GOP cutting Medicare" goodbye, courtesy of the President.
And finally, no one is talking about tax increases at all. Meaning, the President and Senator Reid appear to be caving on nearly every single GOP demand, and appear to have gotten nothing in return. In fact, as Joe keeps pointing out, the final deal appears to have even more cuts than the Republicans were asking for in first place. President Obama and Senator Reid appear incapable of taking "yes" for an answer.
Finally, there are America's progressive non-profits. AARP. Families USA. NOW. HCAN. And all the rest. Where are they in all of this? So far, MIA as usual.
It's increasingly looking like the Democratic party has betrayed its core values, and its core constituents, in addition to the entire US economy. And while it's true that come November 2012, "President Bachmann would be worse," to paraphrase the old saying: Voters who refuse to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it.
So get ready for a lot more hostage-taking, and a lot more caving from President Obama and Senator Reid. The Republicans have Barack Obama's and Harry Reid's number. And so far that number is $3 trillion and counting.
