The Osama bounce to Obama's approval ratings will likely be short-lived

Mark Blumenthal, HuffPost:

Franklin and Brendan Nyhan, a University of Michigan political scientist, agree that a similar or slightly greater bounce is likely for Obama. Nyhan says that "5-10 points seems possible, and maybe a bit more." But he warns that "bounces dissipate quickly, so the long-term significance is likely to be small."

Of course, approval ratings capture the public's response to a president's handling of a wide variety of issues and public events -- especially the condition of the economy -- so direct comparisons across individual events can be misleading. Indeed, the killing of bin Laden, a mass murderer and international terrorist, is a historic event without a clear parallel.

Nonetheless, an overall pattern is discernible: Americans rally to their president around national security crises and military successes, but their reactions are usually short-lived. Most polls currently put Obama's approval in the mid-40 percent range. In two weeks, that will likely be higher, but how long that boost will last is anyone's guess.

And while this is all true, it's better for the President and the country to have gotten bin Laden, than not.