Many think that Mubarak is already on his way out. He appointed Omar Suleiman ("our man in Cairo," it seems) as his VP last week, and now the Obama administration is asking him to step down and make Suleiman his "transitional" successor. The exit dance may already have begun.
So, two questions:
1. Who is directing the anti-press attacks?
2. Why is Mubarak dragging his feet?
About the first, we don't know; and it would be a mistake to assume that Mubarak is doing it. There are many people around him who want his apparatus to remain in control, if not the man himself. And that apparatus has many pieces.
About the second, we have Scott Horton to help. Fast answer: "The Hague". In a new article in Foreign Policy, he says the following:
Time was when a dictator like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, watching his hold on power crumbling in the face of an uprising, had plenty of retirement options. Odds were he could find a quiet life in one of Europe's posher watering holes: Mougins in the hills above Cannes, on the shores of Lake Geneva, or maybe a smart Belgravia townhouse. He generally had plenty of cash parked outside the country and often would take a last dip in the treasury on the way out the door. To be sure, he had to keep his wits about him to avoid anarchists and assassins, and he had to avoid too much obvious meddling in his homeland's politics lest this jeopardize his host's grant of asylum. But he could usually look forward to a peaceful and comfortable run for his waning days.So what's a dictator to do?
So why is Mubarak trying to squeeze a few more months out of his three-decade career in office and avowing his intentions to stay in Egypt rather than packing for the Riviera? It may be because exile isn't what it used to be; over the last 30 years, things have gotten increasingly difficult for dictators in flight. Successor regimes launch criminal probes; major efforts are mounted to identify assets that may have been stripped or looted by the autocrat, or more commonly, members of his immediate family. ... [H]uman rights lawyers and international prosecutors may take a close look at the tools the deposed dictator used to stay in power: Did he torture? Did he authorize the shooting of adversaries? Did he cause his enemies to "disappear"? Was there a mass crackdown that resulted in dozens or hundreds of deaths? A trip to The Hague or another tribunal might be in his future.
[H]ow can Mubarak protect himself if he eventually makes an escape from Cairo? He's taking the usual steps now. Start with his decision to install foreign intelligence chief and CIA confidant Omar Suleiman as vice president and constitutional successor. ... Suleiman, a close and loyal advisor to Mubarak, had of course long been expected to emerge as vice president, but his assumption of the office had been blocked by his bitter rival, Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. With the forces of opposition swirling out of control, appointing a successor who was both credible and capable of protecting Mubarak in exile was a priority move, and identifying someone with the tightest possible connections both to the United States and Israel was doubtless an added advantage.That's just the start of this fascinating article. The exit process is detailed, along with the new regime's likely blocking moves (assuming the "new" regime is actually new).
Me, I wouldn't be surprised if Mubarak didn't have "negotiating room" with the U.S. As in, "mutual silence is good for us both." After all, Suleiman is a keeper of both sides secrets.
GP
