UPDATE 6:49 PM: Egyptian US embassy employee dead after being picked up by Egyptian security forces. It seems quite possible that the Obama administration is being tested, or at the very least a clear message may be being sent to any Egyptians who "help" the Americans. We don't know as of yet what exactly happened, but it doesn't look good.
UPDATE 6:06 PM: From CNN.... ElBaradei says Suleiman, Mubarak are "twins" -- "neither acceptable to the people."
UPDATE 5:36pm: Egypt's ambassador (to the US?) tells CNN that Mubarak has transferred his powers to the VP, who is now the "de facto president." Hmm... apparently Mubarak did make a vague reference to this in his speech. More from Foreign Policy, in an analysis entitled "Responding to the Worst Speech Ever":
It's hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak's speech today was for Egypt. In the extended runup to his remarks, every sign indicated that he planned to announce his resignation: the military's announcement that it had taken control, the shift in state television coverage, a steady stream of leaks about the speech. With the whole world watching, Mubarak instead offered a meandering, confused speech promising vague Constitutional changes and defiance of foreign pressure. He offered a vaguely worded delegation of power to Vice President Omar Suleiman, long after everyone in Egypt had stopped listening. It is virtually impossible to conceive of a more poorly conceived or executed speech.UPDATE 4 (from JOHN): Mubarak's speech on YouTube. He's nuts. Chastising those who sit in squares. The man has single-handedly taken an American people who generally considered Egypt one of the "good" Muslim countries, i.e., "moderate" government, nice place for tourism, and convinced us that he's a despot as bad as the Chinese. Amazingly bad job of handling this crisis. Then again, perhaps Mubarak doesn't care about world opinion, he likely cares more about holding on to power, and not being tried a la Saddam, if he loses power.
Omar Suleiman's televised address which followed made things even worse, if that's possible, telling the people to go home and blaming al-Jazeera for the problems. It solidified the already deep distrust of his role among most of the opposition and of the protestors, and tied his fate to that of Mubarak. Even potentially positive ideas in their speeches, such as Constitutional amendments, were completely drowned out by their contemptuous treatment of popular demands. Things could get ugly tonight --- and if things don't explode now, then the crowds tomorrow will be absolutely massive. Whatever happens, for better or for worse, the prospects of an orderly, negotiated transition led by Omar Suleiman have just plummeted sharply.
UPDATE 3: Suleiman is now speaking, and to my ears, issuing veiled threats. Oh well. I guess it's on.
Al Jazeera's live stream is here.
UPDATE 2: There's some confusion about what "transferring power" to Suleiman means. Clearly Sulieman's being positioned, but we knew that. Is Mubarak actually handing over power, or is this the cover story for "ain't gonna go"? I wouldn't make assumptions at this point.
UPDATE: The BBC story is here.
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Right. In other words, I ain't leaving.
Hosni Mubarak spoke on Egyptian television, with simulcast on several U.S. networks. He said he is addressing the "youth" of Egypt, expressing respect for their "just demands". He will hold accountable those who made "mistakes" — this, he says, is out of his "conviction" — and promised not to run for another term.
Interesting. This almost guarantees that the pressure will continue. As I wrote earlier, this stubborn obstinacy is probably a good thing. It's less likely that an unacceptable compromise will be achieved if one of the parties is uncompromising.
The next move is the army's (will they continue to crack down on the protesters?); and Wael Ghonim's; and Mohamed ElBaradei's.
Video as it becomes available.
Freedom is a long road, folks. Egypt is providing a lesson to us all.
GP
