This is just for fun, of course, for the "God's spies" people who enjoy the ins and outs of strategic thinking. Offered for what it's worth. At this point I'm agnostic on the subject.
I found this article in my wanderings, a good analysis of (1) the pros and cons of a from-the-left, anti-war–based primary challenge to Obama, with (2) a special focus on Alan Grayson as the challenger.
The article is not about anything Grayson has said; it's not news or an announcement. It's not even speculation on the likelihood. But it is a thoughtful analysis of the if-then branches of that decision tree. I present it in that spirit, as a spur to your own thinking.
Current Beltway consensus holds that the 2012 race, like 2010, will be a referendum on the economy. But what if, instead, the war in Afghanistan, which Barack Obama has embraced, deteriorates dramatically, requiring a delay in the scheduled troop withdrawal or, worse, forces another escalation? Might Democratic anti-war sentiment -- until now a sleeper issue -- turn rebellious?Thus the article starts. As I said, thoughtful.
Already, national polls show a plurality (Pew) or a majority (Quinnipiac) opposed to remaining in Afghanistan, with the margins of opposition rising. ... With early caucuses in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary, the primary schedule would favor such an effort, even one that is largely symbolic. Both are states where anti-war sentiment tends to run high, and where there are relatively few African-American Democrats, who make up the core of Obama's support.
Note the focus on war as the organizing issue. The precedent is Eugene McCarthy and his principled anti-war challenge to Lyndon Johnson. The benefit of a war-based challenge is that it creates a moral, as opposed to a political, context. Moral challenges are often tougher to dismiss and easier to defend.
There is much about Grayson in the article. Here's where he appears to stand:
[B]y 2010, his prominence with the Democratic base was such that he was able to raise more than $5 million before writing any personal checks or taking out loans. He's reportedly mulling plans for a book about the future of the Democratic Party that would likely appear in the midst of the run-up to the 2012 primary season, making a run doubly attractive. Until then, he could maintain his visibility by serving as a fill-in host for MSNBC's "The Ed Show," where he has been a frequent -- almost regular -- guest.A good picture of someone who is careful about party loyalty, but also about principles. (More on Grayson and party loyalty here.) There are clearly downsides to a Grayson challenge, and these are discussed as well. Do read if you're interested.
When White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs dissed Democrats' liberal base months ago, Grayson called for his ouster. Yet for a politician not heretofore known for circumspection, Grayson had been extremely careful about criticizing Obama directly. He always argued for the most liberal positions, but in the end supported the Democrats' final compromise legislation. That is, until the tax cut vote, when he joined other dissident Democrats in writing a public letter to the president and opposing the measure.
GP
