So until their latest attempt to collect oil is placed over the leak, all of the oil is leaking into the Gulf of Mexico at the moment. Maybe we will all be surprised and the new cap will be an enormous success.
BP engineers will spend the weekend trying to arrest the flow of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico by lowering a replacement cap over the ruptured well. If successful, the scheme could stem the spill in time for David Cameron's first visit to Washington, which is expected to be dominated by discussion of the environmental disaster.
The cap currently on the well collects only a fraction of the estimated 35,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day spewing out of the failed blowout preventer on the sea bed. Installation work on the new cap should start today, and while it is still only a temporary measure it should be able to siphon off far more oil. The spill is only likely to be fully curtailed by the relief wells BP is currently drilling more than 5km below sea level.
A new cap would, however, give BP chief executive Tony Hayward something tangible to present to politicians and investors when BP announces second-quarter results on 27 July and should be in place by 20 July when Cameron is due to arrive in the US.
