Latest oil spill chart, plus Gulf current info

A couple of items in this post. First, the latest NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) chart for potential landfall of the spill.


That's the 24-hr forecast as of May 13. Their 72-hr forecast is here (pdf). In both graphs, the outer circle is the area of "uncertainty", and the red dots are potential beached oil.

Second, here's the reason everyone on the Atlantic seaboard is worried sick. This is a snapshot of ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico. (For a real-time, animated version, click here.)

Land masses are white. To orient yourself, find Cuba (the large island center-right), then Florida north of it. Now start at the bottom and watch what the main current does. First it bounces off Yucatan, moves sharply north near the (ahem) spill area, east and south between Cuba and Florida, then north along our coast.

That stream is the potential delivery system of BP oil to the eastern seaboard. If the slick gets into it, the east coast is toast — very buttery toast.

Where is the oil relative to this stream? The red marker in the map below shows roughly where the spill is. (I estimated coords from the NOAA chart above.) The blue marker shows the approximate location of the north bend of the main current (coords from the water current map above). Note that the main current can and does change; that the spill area will grow; and that sub-currents move into the main current, not just away from it.

As you can see from these images, there's still hope for containing the damage to "just" the Gulf of Mexico — for now at least. Stay tuned.

Yours in hope,

GP