Stephen Roach has consistently offered excellent commentary and insight into this troubled economy including today's visit to CNBC. The US economy had much too much consumer spending when it peaked at 72% of GNP in the first half of 2007. Roach believes we still have 80% of the adjustment ahead of us including rising unemployment that will likely cross 9% and possibly even 10% during the recovery. Recovering from the consumer spending binge will take years and when we do see recovery, it's likely to be small for a while as opposed to a strong bounce. Roach even slips in a shot at the Wall Street cheerleaders who always claim we've seen the last of the bad news only to be back to the same point a month or two later. It's an excellent video from the no-nonsense Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific.
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