Losing Virginia was a devastating blow to the Republicans this year. But, it wasn't a fluke. As the demographics of Virginia, particularly the ever-expanding Northern VA suburbs change, the state is turning even bluer. All that GOP immigrant bashing, and there have been some vocal haters in Virginia like Corey Stewart from Prince William County, have only helped the Democrats increase their margins.
A post-election analysis in today's Washington Post shows just how much things have changed since the 2000 election:
In Northern Virginia's outer suburbs, a growing number of nonwhite residents, particularly Hispanics, are diminishing what had long been a big source of votes for Republican candidates. Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford counties and Manassas and Manassas Park have all experienced double-digit increases in the percentage of nonwhite residents since 2000. And in each of those locations, Democrats' share of the vote increased proportionally.I guess all that immigrant bashing by Mr. Stewart in Prince William County paid off -- for the Democrats. Great strategy, VA GOP. And, what an amazing shift in population -- and Democratic vote.
The nonwhite population of Prince William, for example, has grown by 13 percentage points since 2000. President-elect Barack Obama carried the county with almost 58 percent of the vote -- 13 points better than former vice president Al Gore did in the 2000 presidential race.
The changing demographics helped the Democratic vote in other exurban counties, too:
Loudoun experienced a 12-point gain in the minority population since 2000, and Obama did 13 percentage points better than Gore did in 2000. Obama did 10 points better than Gore in Stafford, which saw a 10 percent increase in the minority population since 2000.It's not the same Virginia it was just 10 years ago. That's something for which we can all be thankful.
This shift, matched with historical Democratic strength in the inner suburbs, makes Northern Virginia a huge source of votes for Democrats. The region's size, compared with the rest of the state, threatens Republicans' ability to win statewide if Democrats can continue to get their voters to the poll, demographers and political scientists suggest.
"The transformation in Northern Virginia has been rapid and dramatic, and Obama came out of Northern Virginia with a margin of [213,000] votes, and that is very hard to overcome," said Ken Billingsley, director of demographics and information for the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. "In Prince William, the change has already occurred, and I am not the least bit surprised that Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg are moving in that direction."
