Predictable, but not the news that retailers wanted to hear. If you are worried about your own job and unsure about the future, of course you won't spend as easily as in the past. The decline in consumer spending will of course mean lower Q4 corporate numbers which will probably mean more pressure on stocks next quarter when the numbers arrive. Declining growth and an inability to provide clear guidance for the future (and who can really forecast in this climate?) will translate into an extension of this choppy market.
The U.S. holiday shopping season got off to a slow start as consumers, squeezed by the economic crisis, bought carefully and said they would wait for better deals closer to Christmas.
Early results from the Black Friday weekend, which kicks off holiday sales one day after Thanksgiving, bolstered forecasts by some analysts that total holiday sales could contract for the first time since that data started being collected in the early 1990s.
ShopperTrak, which measures customer traffic, said Saturday that Black Friday sales rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion. That was slower than an 8.3 percent rise in 2007.
"The initial response by many people may be positive," said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman of the increase.
But, Feldman said, excluding inflation the sales figures are roughly flat year over year. His firm still expects overall holiday sales will be flat to slightly down.
Shoppers interviewed Saturday said they were disappointed by the deals this weekend and bet stores would offer even steeper discounts in the weeks to come -- a worrisome sign for retailers struggling with weak profits.
