Per CNN's correspondent, Jamie McIntyre, moments ago, speaking about the efficacy of Bush's proposal to add another 20,000 troops to Iraq:
"And it won't be hard to tell - if violence drops, the plan is working."In fact, that statement is patently untrue. As our own AJ, a former Defense Intelligence analyst working on Iraq, explained just yesterday:
"[The surge] happens to coincide with the time of the year when violence traditionally wanes significantly, so unless the increase is a colossal failure (i.e., actually manages to reverse the usual trend of decreased attacks), we won't even know if it worked until summer/fall '07.... by launching this escalation at a time of year during which violence traditionally ebbs anyway, the decrease in violence may create the false impression that the new surge strategy is working (post hoc ergo propter hoc).Why does a blogger know this fact, but CNN's top national security correspondent doesn't?
