Why is Obama not bombing Iran? And why he shouldn’t.

Not that I think Obama should bomb Iran in response to the terror plot just discovered. Republicans will certainly be calling for a military response. On past precedent, a military response would be justified. Yet this has been rulled out. Why?

First off we have to exclude the suggestion that not bombing is a sign of weakness. There is really nothing easier for a US president to do than to press the button for military action. Bush II proved that it is easy for a coward to send others in to fight a war. Russia and China would protest a military action, but they would support it in private if they were convinced the plot was real. Not bombing will take much more courage for Obama than the easy decision to attack.

One explanation for the lack of action is that the plot was 'aspirational' not 'operational', this being the cute phrase used in cases where the FBI has infiltrated some group with an agent provocateur who costructed a plot where none existed before. But at least one of the plotters was a member of the Qods force which means that they were under the Iranian chain of command. Such people do not spontaneously plot to bomb restaurants without direct and unambiguous orders from their superiors.

Another possible explanation is that the tip off came from inside the Iranian regime itself. Like the old Soviet illegals, the Qods force reports through operatives stationed in the local embassy. Reading between the lines of Holder's statement suggests to me that this might have occured or that this is what the Administration may want the Iranian goverment to assume occurred.

In either case, not bombing is the smartest response. Ahmedinejad is engaged in a power struggle within the regime. He has spent most of his time and energy as President attempting to provoke attack by Israel or the US. An external attack would give him the authority to liquidate opponents within the regime. While the Supreme Leader might retain titular authority, his actual position would be reduced to a cipher and the present incumbent most likely disposed of as well.

Not bombing deprives the would-be Napoleon of the pretext for his enabling act. Time is running short for the mullahs. They can either choose to return power to their citizens and permit a free election or they can attempt to continue their illegitimate rule through a series of Ahmadinejads and hope that none of them attempts to secure absolute rule.