Goldman economist: Recession chances 40%, unemployment to rise

Only 40%?

Odds that the U.S. economy will enter recession are now close to 50-50 as unemployment heads on a path higher and pressures from Europe intensify, Goldman Sachs economists said.

Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief US economist, pegged recession chances at 40 percent and said the jobless rate is likely to surge to the mid-9 percent range in 2012.

While that still jibes with the firm's forecast that a recession — or two consecutive quarters of negative growth — is not the most likely scenario, the warning signs flashed Tuesday underscore concerns about European debt contagion on an already fragile US economy.