I don't normally bother with US press stories on Israel. CAMERA, AIPAC and others have well organized campaigns that complain about the slightest deviation from the Israel lobby line. I know because the requests for outrage are forwarded to the family mailing list. Since it is assumed that only Zionists care about such stories, the establishment press is happy to oblige. As a result you will get a better understanding of the Israeli position from the lunatic rightwing Jerusalem Post than the New York Times.
But a NYT Op-ed written by a former Israeli Prime Minister is a very different matter. Ehud Olmert's piece today tries to point out the real stakes in the diplomatic maneuvering taking place in the UN:
The window of opportunity is limited. Israel will not always find itself sitting across the table from Palestinian leaders like Mr. Abbas and the prime minister, Salam Fayyad, who object to terrorism and want peace. Indeed, future Palestinian leaders might abandon the idea of two states and seek a one-state solution, making reconciliation impossible.Tizipi Livni made a related point in a more robust fashion in the Knesset:
"The diplomatic stupidity that characterizes this government is causing it to put the United States into a corner," said Livni, speaking during a special Knesset debate on Monday ahead of the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations.Virtually all the accounts of the Palestinian move presents it as an attempt to put pressure on Israel. I think they are badly mistaken. Abbas is no fool and he knows that Netanyahu is immune to all outside pressure.
For the PLO this is a last, desperate attempt to keep the two state solution alive. By getting the UN to vote to recognize the Palestinian State, Abbas hopes to make the two state solution a fact on the ground.
The two state deal was always a much better deal for the PLO than for the Palestinian people. In return for recognizing the confiscation of land and ethnic cleansing of 1948 as permanent, the PLO would be permitted to rule a Mubarak-style pseudo-democracy in Gaza and the West Bank.
When the consequences of the two state solution are stated in these terms it becomes much easier to understand the rise of Hamas. The 'demographic time bomb' that worries Zionists is the reason that Hamas believes they will eventually prevail.
There is also a demographic time bomb ticking in the US. Despite the Islamophobia in the wake of 9/11, the Muslim population in the US is now 2.6 million and growing fast. The Jewish population is 5.2 million and slowly declining. There is a clear generational divide between older and younger Jews.
Meanwhile the Arab Spring is upsetting the political assumptions of Hamas, the PLO, and Israel at the same time. Hamas can no longer assume that the Palestinian people will acquiesce to their proposed theocratic state. The PLO is going to have to leave power when they lose an election. Israel may no longer be able to claim the support of the West as 'the only democracy in the Middle East'.
The region is certainly changing and it is clear that the current situation cannot hold. But what can replace it?
Update: Fixed the spelling.
