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Will the 21st century belong to China?



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That's what many Americans think. Having started my adult working career during the "Japan is taking over the world economy, we're doomed" years and then working closely with Japan back in the 1990s, I'm less convinced. Also, too many people see the high growth related to China but overlook the problems that could easily change the dynamics. When bubbles burst - and they always do - responses can vary dramatically. Without a booming economy, how easy will it be for the communist party to maintain its grip on the country? With unrest already causing problems during the good times, how bad will it be in the future? How will China react if the West doesn't start buying Chinese products again at pre-recession rates?

As for the US, clearly the system is off though the US also has an ability to remake itself better and faster than most countries. Corporate lobbying and influence in the US is damaging America's ability to compete on a global scale. When the US was more of a closed system, it was possible to get away with such a system but with easy access to foreign competitors. These days, however, something needs to change in the US to prepare businesses for the global market. The US also needs to be a leader in new technologies and not a follower.

What's the mood here? Is this century destined to be all about China or somewhere in the middle?

Asked whether this century would be more of an "American Century" or more of a "Chinese Century," Americans divide evenly in terms of the economy (41 percent say Chinese, 40 percent American) and tilt toward the Chinese in terms of world affairs (43 percent say Chinese, 38 percent American). A slim majority say the United States will play a diminished role in the world's economy this century, and nearly half see the country's position shrinking in world affairs more generally.

The results are consistent with recent polls by Gallup, the Pew Research Center and others that have tracked a significant public concern about China's growing prominence on the world stage, as its economy has expanded into what is arguably the second-biggest in the world. In 2000, for example, when the U.S. economy was booming, 65 percent of Americans polled by Gallup said the United States had the world's strongest economy. By last year, the United States and China ran neck-and-neck on the question.


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