Israeli attack could impact Obama

From Ben Smith:

Israel’s air strikes in Gaza end any faint hopes that President-elect Barack Obama will take office with a clear path toward Middle East peace laid out before him.

It may also strengthen the hand of more hawkish advisers who have argued that his first step toward Middle East peace should be attempting to weaken and isolate Iran, not negotiating with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, analysts said. With Israeli elections scheduled for February 10, the ongoing Gaza strike and its eventual aftermath may determine who Obama will choose as his Israeli interlocutor.

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Within Obama’s transition, Democrats say there’s a subtle division between between advisers who hold out hope for a directly negotiated peace, culminating with a signing ceremony on the South Lawn, and those who have argued for a more oblique approach aimed at a negotiated peace between Israel and Syria, and weakening Syria’s ties with Iran. The latter group of advisers — which include former Clinton aides Dennis Ross and Martin Indyk — see weakening the role of Iran, which is closely tied to Hezbollah, as central to establishing an Israeli-Palestinian peace.

The hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza may strengthen their case, analysts on both sides of the divide said Sunday. But the success of the attack may have the reverse consequence in Israeli politics, strengthening foreign minister and Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, who is seen as being somewhat more open to negotiations with Palestinian leaders than her main rival, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.