A lot of polls coming out today. We looked at Pennsylvania below. Here are three from Ohio that look good for Obama -- and I'm not cherry-picking. These are all solid, independent polls:
University of Cincinnati's "Ohio Poll":
Barack Obama is likely to prevail over John McCain in the fierce battle for Ohio's 20 electoral votes, according to an Ohio Poll released Monday morning,Quinnpiac:
The poll by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research - billed as a final projection of Tuesday's results by institute pollster Eric Rademacher -- shows Obama with 51.5 percent to 45.7 percent for McCain.
Obama's lead is well outside the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.7 percentage points.
Ohio [Obama leads 50% - 43%]Public Policy Polling:
Among early voters in Ohio, Obama leads 64 - 26 percent.
Among all likely voters, women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, as men back McCain 51 - 43 percent. McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent and among evangelical Christians 59 - 34 percent. Obama leads among black voters 96 - 1 percent.
Independent voters go 48 - 44 percent for the Democrat.
Obama gets a 55 - 38 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain.
Palin's favorability is a negative 41 - 45 percent, while Biden gets 48 - 33 percent.
Barack Obama 50
John McCain 48
There is good news and bad news for Barack Obama in Ohio.
The bad news:
-His lead in the state is down from seven points in a PPP survey a week and a half ago to now just two.
-He is losing ground among white voters. Last week he trailed just 49-46. Now it's 55-43.
-Undecided independents seem to be moving in McCain's direction. Last week Obama was up 48-36 with that group, now it's 49-46.
The good news:
-Even though Obama's margin has gone down a good bit, his actual standing is pretty much the same as last week. There is little fundamental difference between 50% and 51%.
-He's banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.And a just released SurveyUSA(conducted through yesterday):Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 46%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll released Election Eve. Obama leads 5:3 among those who have already voted. McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. Obama led in the past 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls, but by tapering margins. Obama led by 5 on 10/14/08, by 4 on 10/28/08 and by 2 today. It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day and white voters from Dayton, Cincinnati and along the West Virginia border to show up in larger numbers than they have so far indicated.
