Pennsylvania is McCain's last stand. He's been telling us for weeks that he'd win there. His campaign has spun the punditry into a frenzy over PA. Several new polls came out from the Keystone State today. It's not going to happen for McCain. The demographic breakdowns are very similar among the different polls, too.
Public Policy Polling:
Barack Obama 53Quinnipiac:
John McCain 45
Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.
Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.
Pennsylvania [Obama 52 - McCain 42]Muhlenberg Daily Tracking:
Obama leads 55 - 39 percent with women, and 49 - 45 percent with men. White voters split 47 - 47 percent, while black voters back Obama 95 - 1 percent. McCain leads 67 - 27 percent among evangelical Christians while Obama leads 51 - 46 percent among Catholics.
Independent voters back the Democrat 49 - 42 percent. Obama gets a 58 - 35 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 53 - 42 percent. Palin's favorability is a split 43 - 44 percent, while Biden gets 52 - 32 percent.
The economy is the most important issue, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and Obama will be more effective than McCain working with Congress, voters say 53 - 40 percent.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College daily tracking poll -- which had Barack Obama leading by 13 points less than a week ago -- has the Illinois senator up by just 6 points today.
What's going on?
Undecideds are .... deciding. Obama now holds a 52 to 46 percent lead in Pennsylvania. [McCain's] problem. There is only 2 percent left on the fence, the poll shows.
