Following up on Joe's post below about the expanded ad campaign map, there are a couple of key early voting indicators that are giving the Obama campaign reason and encouragement:
- Early voting in Georgia has been encouraging to the campaign and helped put them on the air. It's not like the Obama campaign hasn't been active in Georgia, they have over 4,800 neighborhood captains.
- In Florida, roughly 1/4 of of early voting is "sporadic" Democrats - i.e. registered Democrats who may not have voted in the last Presidential.
- Similar story in North Carolina - 19% of Democrats have never voted in a General Election before.
- The campaign believes that early voting is going to be a predictor of the turnout on election day - the electorate who votes early isn't going to look much different from the electorate who shows up on election day. As a result, they are modifying their turnout models.
