Rob is on the beach somewhere, just emailed me his take on the new poll showing 27% of Hillary supporters saying they'll vote for McCain.
My quick take: Hillary and her supporters can sometimes be a bit demanding, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be wooed. The chorus of Hillary supporters, from Rendell, to Carville and Begala, still stirring up trouble, during the convention no less, says to me that there may be more to this than just Hillary's peeps being ornery. At some point, if you don't reach out to people sufficiently, and in an ongoing manner, you run the risk of them turning on you. Doesn't mean that's what's happening here, but it could be.
More from Rob:
One note is that the margin of error on the Hillary question is 7.5%. Looking at the other polls, it's probably around 20%, or 1 in 5, Hillary voters going for McCain at this point.
If we think about the classic "Reagan Democrats" demographic segment, it's entirely logical to think that segment - particularly women - might have said they'd vote for Hillary, but don't think Obama is experienced enough. Michelle Obama's twisted comments on her pride in America stick in their craw. Rev. Wright and raising his young children in that environment is a moral failing to them - this isn't the inspirational MLK, it's divisive. They might also not feel like Hillary was treated fairly by the men in her life once again (something they might relate to). They might think that she earned the VP slot having almost won (thus explaining the slide over the last month as it became obvious that she wasn't even on Obama's list).
I suspect that Obama's people are banking on the hope that as it becomes obvious that there are bigger issues, particularly the Supreme Court, those voters will come home and vote for the Democratic ticket.
The problem is that a we've seen over the last two elections, voters seem willing to walk into the voting booth and vote against their own interests. The task for the Obama campaign is to clearly articulate, particularly to Hispanic women, that the stakes are so high in this election they have to hold their nose and vote Obama.
Not optimal, but I'm sure there would have been another set of problems if he picked her. I think those would have been easier to overcome, as the argument could have been made that with 18 million votes, she earned it no matter what you feel about her.
