Burnt Orange Report has the results of the Texas Credit Union League poll, which shows fairly tight races on both sides. Very surprising that the Huckster is within reach of McCain:
The poll was commissioned by the Texas Credit Union League, conducted Feb 11-13, with a MOE of +/- 4.9%.Burnt Orange dissects the numbers to show that, in fact, Obama could come out of Texas with more delegates based on the existing numbers. Worth a read. The complicated Texas delegate selection process is in a league of its own.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Latest IVR Poll 1/31)
Hillary Clinton: 49 (48)
Barack Obama: 41 (38)
Undecided: 8 (10)
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
John McCain: 45 (43)
Mike Huckabee: 41 (33)
Undecided: 5 (13)
And now for the interesting sub-groups and my analysis. It's here that we find something very surprising!
Even though Clinton leads by 8 points in polling statewide, based upon the following sub-samples, Obama would still come out with a delegate lead.
Burnt Orange is a terrific blog, and will be especially invaluable over the next couple weeks as we all try to figure out what's going on in the Lone Star State. A guiding principle during this election has been to trust the locals over the national pundits.
Key finding is that McCain isn't closing the deal with his base. It shouldn't be close at this point.
