Information often is not what it seems

This article makes a simple but frequently overlooked point: in a situation like Iraq, information -- even regarding straightforward metrics and benchmarks -- varies widely depending on who is providing and/or interpreting it.

As Congress and the American public begin to ask for tangible and quantitative measures of whether the troop increase in Iraq is creating improvement or presiding over failure, it would be wise to remember the kind of place where the United States is dispatching — metaphorically, at least — its statisticians.

Iraq is the place where there are still wildly conflicting estimates of something as fundamental as how many civilians have died as a result of the war. It is a place where some government officials will swear that there are 348,000 wonderfully trained, motivated and equipped Iraqis in the security forces and other officials will tell you that most of those troops and police either have questionable loyalties, lack equipment or simply do not always report for duty. The precision is very important: 348,000, according to Wednesday’s update from the Pentagon. Or, perhaps, hundreds of thousands less.

With so little access to the ground truth, it is extraordinarily difficult to evaluate the current situation, let alone what the trends are. Many observers, especially within the administration, desperately want their positions to be right and their programs to be successful, which biases their view -- often to the detriment of Americans' understanding of the facts. Further, another significant problems is that people become adept at telling U.S. officials what they want to hear, rather than reality.

How can a single country look so kaleidoscopically different depending on the point of view? Part of the answer is clearly that competing political entities strain with all their might to see a reality that fits their convictions — and that includes official entities that are determined to show progress . . .

Another difficulty for the United States is the remarkable weakness American officials seem to have for people who say what Americans want to believe about whatever country they happen to be in. The effect has been obvious at least since “The Quiet American” by Graham Greene, set in 1950s Vietnam, and Iraq has been fertile ground for this particular brand of bad information.

It is increasingly difficult to get good intelligence, reliable information on macro-level metrics, or even updates on the political process. The obfuscation will only increase as the administration comes under more criticism about the war; attempts to show progress will become the most important part of keeping the war going. If you think the administration will ever admit that progress simply isn't happening, you're crazy. And with the situation so messy and confused, it will be hard to sort fact from fiction.