Two helicopters down in a week

It is extremely worrisome to see two helicopters go down in Iraq in just the past week. Although the cause of both crashes is still under investigation, militants have claimed responsibility for shooting them down. One crash killed a dozen soldiers, the other resulted in the deaths of five American security contractors, four of whom were reportedly shot execution-style after surviving the initial impact.

Helicopters are to a large extent the last (relatively) safe way to travel in Iraq. As we said when I was there, no IEDs in the sky. Whereas convoys are attacked nonstop, helicopters have largely escaped unscathed. It may turn out that these two went down due to mechanical or pilot error, or even just lucky rifle fire, which would make the deaths tragic. If, however, the crashes resulted from Stinger attacks (or from a similar MANPAD shoulder-fired system), the deaths would be tragic and strategically ominous. There are reportedly sophisticated MANPAD systems floating around, some left over from Afghanistan, some on the black market, and others apparently produced by Iran (reverse-engineered from Stingers we gave to the anti-Soviet mujahadeen, of course). If they make it to Iraq in any significant number, we will have tremendous defensive issues.

Which brings us to a point that does not get made nearly enough: part of the cost of occupation is a gradual leveling of the military playing field. The enemy is learning while our government forces our troops to remain with no objective, no coherent plan, and no exit strategy. Without our operations in Iraq, it would take anti-American fighters years, perhaps decades, to try different tactics against our forces and technology. Instead they're getting those opportunities in days or weeks.

That's not an argument against military action in general, of course -- to effect necessary military operations, you have to show your hand to some extent. But they key word there is "necessary." In addition to the unconscionable and indefensible continued loss of American (and Iraqi) life, every day this war does long-term damage both tactically and strategically. The idea that things are as bad as they can get is sadly, egregiously mistaken, and I hope these helicopter crashes are tangential to that fact rather than reflective of it.