The trouble with "unity government" in Iraq

Prime Minister Maliki is apparently about to revamp his Cabinet. His current collection of Ministers results from intense U.S. and international pressure to establish a "unity government" following last year's elections, and for some reason people thought these Ministers would all work together in magical harmony -- despite having no affection, never mind loyalty, for each other -- to fix Iraq. It turns out, of course, that the Ministers are answering to the leaders of their particular parties and/or sects rather than Maliki himself.

While the U.S. continue to look backwards ("How can we go back to the possibility of a liberalized Iraq?"), Iraqis understand where this is going and they're hedging their bets. Odds are strong that Iraq will be run at a local level by religious and ethnic parties and their respective militias, and with so much oil money to be had, the schemes of corruption and local management are being established. If it continues along the current path, Iraq will be like a city run by the mafia, writ large (both in size and in profits). Its leaders won't be unlike Russian oligarchs, for example, with one foot in legitimate business and governance and the other firmly rooted in corruption and malfeasance.

This process is accelerated when the government is working at cross-purposes with itself. There are a couple solutions to this kind of impasse: a broad-based political agreement or dominance by one particular group that can assert its will. A political agreement requires that all major sides have leaders who can deliver their followers, which is extremely doubtful for the Sunnis and questionable for the Shia (only the Kurdish leaders can be counted on to control their people), as well as the desire for a solution. Right now the rewards for winning these battles (oil revenues) are so great, I don't think leaders are willing to compromise. As for granting power to one group, perhaps that's what Maliki will do with his new Cabinet. If he gives the Kurds increasing autonomy and oil rights, they'll likely back him in Parliament, and he may be able to get enough Shia support to marginalize Sunni influence. The changes he makes in Parliament should be a significant indication of the plans of the ruling Shia elites. Either way, the idea that all parties would work together in government is being exposed as the silliness it always was.