That much vaunted RNC 72-hour get out the vote effort works best if the base is engaged and motivated. According to Time Magazine's new poll, the GOP base in not motivated -- and it's shrinking:
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.Two other key findings. Men are slightly favoring Dems. over Republicans (47%-43%). That's new. Women favor Dems. by a wide margin.
Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush. While the GOP won out in the poll by seven points (42-35) as the party perceived as best equipped to protect moral values, a matter especially important to this group, the party's standing among evangelicals may have been hurt by recent Congressional scandals, which have tarnished the GOP especially. Forty one percent of registered voters said Congressional scandals were extremely or very important as voting issues this campaign.
And, Iraq is the most important issue for voters. That Saddam verdict today is a stark reminder of the war. We've lost thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of troops are wounded and disabled. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of Iraqis are dead and the US has spent hundreds of billions on the war. For what???
