Fifty percent of independent voters, a closely watched segment of the electorate in such polarized times, said they intended to vote for the Democratic candidate, versus 23 percent who said they would vote for a Republican.A 19% difference. Wow. I saw Katie Couric on Larry King, she said that this is the worst showing for any party since 1980 when the poll was first taken.
Among registered voters, 33 percent said they planned to support Republicans, and 52 percent said they would vote for Democrats. As a rule, these kind of generic questions — while providing broad insights into the national mood — are often imprecise as a predictor of the outcome of hundreds of Congressional races, where local issues and personalities can shape the result.
Oh God, then read this:
Americans have some clear notions of how government might change if Democrats win control of Congress: Beyond a quicker exit from Iraq, respondents said they thought a Democratic Congress would be more likely to increase the minimum wage, hold down rapidly rising health and prescription drugs costs, improve the economy and — as Republicans have said frequently in these closing days of the campaign — raise taxes.And finally:
By a slight margin, more respondents said the threat of terrorism would increase under Republicans than those who said it would increase under Democrats.
A substantial majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end American military involvement in Iraq if they win control of Congress next Tuesday, and say Republicans would maintain or increase troop levels to try to win the war if they hold on to power on Capitol Hill, according to the final New York Times/CBS News poll before the midterm election.
The poll found that just 29 percent of Americans approve of the way President Bush is managing the war in Iraq, matching the lowest mark of his presidency. Nearly 70 percent of Americans said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and an overwhelming 80 percent said Mr. Bush’s latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy.
