A summary of the polls for other Senate races as well. In a nutshell, The Rs are in serious trouble.
Minnesota: D 50%, R 40% (currently a Dem seat)
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton is not seeking re-election and the Republican candidate, Congressman Mark Kennedy, will likely face Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar in the general election contest. The USA Today/Gallup poll shows Klobuchar with 50% support among likely voters compared with 40% for Kennedy, a statistically significant lead for the Democrat.
Missouri: R 50%, D 44% (currently an R seat)
Republican Sen. Jim Talent won election in 2002 to serve the final four years of the late Mel Carnahan's term. He will face State Auditor Claire McCaskill, who lost a close election for governor in 2004. Talent has a slim 50% to 44% advantage according to the USA Today/Gallup poll; however, that lead is still within the poll's margin of error. Most other polling in Missouri also shows a close race between the two candidates, with voters tilting toward Talent in some polls and McCaskill in others.
Montana: D 48%, R 45% (currently an R seat)
Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns may be especially vulnerable in his bid for re-election this year because of controversy surrounding his receipt of campaign contributions from lobbyist Jack Abramoff.... The USA Today/Gallup poll shows Tester and Burns closely matched, with 48% of likely voters supporting Tester and 45% Burns.
Ohio: D 46%, R 40% (currently an R seat)
A corruption scandal surrounding Republican Gov. Bob Taft is making things especially difficult for Ohio Republicans this year, which could hurt incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine's attempt to win a third Senate term. DeWine is facing longtime Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown. Brown has a slight edge in the USA Today/Gallup poll, 46% to 40%, but again that lead is within the poll's margin of error.
Pennsylvania D 56%, R 38% (currently an R seat)
Perhaps the Republican with the toughest challenge is Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who won close elections to the Senate in 1994 and 2000. Santorum is often viewed as being too conservative for a state that leans Democratic; Pennsylvanians have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in each of the last four presidential elections. Santorum is being challenged by Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer and son of the popular late former governor of Pennsylvania. The USA Today/Gallup poll shows Casey with a sizable advantage over Santorum among likely voters, 56% to 38%. Most other polls in the state this year have shown Casey with the lead, albeit of varying sizes. The USA Today/Gallup numbers are similar to the results of several polls conducted in the spring, and may indicate the momentum is swinging back toward Casey after recent polls suggested that Santorum was cutting into the large lead Casey had enjoyed.
