The Democrats need 15 seats to take control of the US House. They need 15 seats in order to rein in George Bush. New York has several seats that should be in Democratic hands. According to today's NY Times, chances of picking up those seats are looking less and less likely:
In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents. Democrats have a statewide edge in enrollment, and a popular incumbent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, is at the top of the party’s ticket.We need more than one victory in NY....if the DCCC doesn't have the resources to pour in to that state, it's incumbent on the top of the NY Democratic ticket -- Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton -- to make it happen. Both of them are going to win big. Hopefully, they are setting up a get-out-the-vote operation that will benefit Democratic House candidates. Picking up the State Senate would help, too, so NY can re-district the congressional seats to make sure the state's congressional delegation is as Democratic as the state is.
In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party’s best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring.
At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to spend roughly $50 million on advertisements for races around the country, according to Republican estimates. But none of that money has been set aside for New York races, except for Mr. Boehlert’s seat in the 24th District in the Utica area, according to Democrats involved in the races.
The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York. The party needs 15 seats to take control of the House. Even one victory in New York would be an important step toward that goal, giving the Democrats a cushion if they lose elsewhere in the nation.
It should be a big Democratic year in New York -- up and down the ticket. It's not just about NY this year. There are major national implications.
