Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki backtracks on amnesty, withdrawal timeline. Here's what it means...

As John would say, this is interesting. Apparently under pressure from other leaders of the UIA (a Shia coalition in which Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki's Dawa party is a member), Maliki has dropped crucial language from his national reconciliation plan, softening it considerably.

Most reports are attributing the changes to internal UIA negotiations, so it's impossible to know the extent to which US Ambassador Khalilzad or other US figures affected the adjustments. My guess is that the US probably supported the changes, but there are plenty of domestic Iraqi political reasons for the UIA -- especially the powerful SCIRI party -- to argue against amnesty. Many Shia leaders simply don't believe there is such thing as a legitimate resistance, and they are itching to punish Sunnis both for past injustices and for the insurgency (regardless of definition as "nationalist" or "terrorist").

Removal of withdrawal language is, I think, less rooted in domestic politics and therefore more likely to have been influenced by Bush administration officials. Maliki (and/or the other leaders) also took out language regarding "death squads" and militias, which I'm sure SCIRI leaders demanded, as SCIRI's militia, the Badr Corps, has been most frequently accused of those kinds of actions.

I previously was harsh regarding the potential for amnesty, but I want to reiterate a point I made then: amnesty may very well be good policy as part of an endgame scenario, i.e., a cease-fire among Iraqis and a turnover of military power from U.S. to Iraq (a.k.a. withdrawal). But even thinking about that requires somebody to negotiate with, some person or group that actually has the power to bargain on behalf of The Insurgency. Right now that doesn't exist, and obviously there's really no such thing as a unilateral cease-fire. So the changes in this document may also tacitly admit the reality that even if the Iraqi government was prepared to offer certain incentives to fighters in exchange for peace, there's nothing like Sinn Fein or even an Arafat to haggle out the details and, more importantly, enforce it on that side.

When I was in Iraq, one of the running (mordant) jokes we made after especially stupid meetings, foolish dictates, screwed up operations, etc. -- which happened with alarming regularity -- was to look at each other and say, simply, "Forever." As in, "We're going to be here... forever."

So my basic reaction to this posturing, politicking, and bickering, is: Forever.