IT'S OVER: A Failed Presidency

Continuing on John's post last night, as well as my analysis piece following it, I now believe that we are witness to the crystallizing moment when a Presidency fails. The 50% of the country that didn't vote for Bush doesn't like him any more today than when they voted against him less than a year ago. Since the election, the steady drumbeat of failure has driven an additional 10-15% away from the President.

Up until yesterday, this was not the Conservative Movement base walking away, it's been voters who were marginal Republicans in the first place. But they've been marginal Republicans for two elections. They gave Bush the benefit of the doubt in 2000 as he campaigned as a "Compassionate Conservative" and after 9/11, they trusted that he would keep them safe. He was a take-charge kind of guy who was sticking it to the terrorists.

Except he wasn't. The deteriorating situation in Iraq finally wore down an additional 5-10% of the public that voted for Bush in both 2000 and 2004. His numbers hit the low 40s. Katrina came and showed that not only was Iraq a mess, but so was our government here at home. If 9/11 happened again, we'd be no better prepared than we were in 2001, and maybe worse off. The President had appointed an incompetent crony to what to everyone else is a really important job. More marginal Republican voters walked away. His numbers hit the 30s.

Those 30s left supporting Bush, a huge chunk of them are what are called "Movement" conservatives. They watch Justice Sunday, they want prayer put into schools and evolution taken out. They despise gay marriage. They have been waiting for the life of their Movement for this moment, two Supreme Court appointments. And Bush just served them up his equivalent of Clinton's Betsy "Bimbo Eruption" Wright. Deep down they know that if Clinton had tried anything like this they would have impeached him on the spot. It disgusts them that they got duped again.

It's ironic that his downfall comes at the hands of the very thing that he hung out in front of Conservatives, like Lucy with the football. His failure on foreign policy and his war in Iraq made the U.S. weaker abroad. Conservatives hate that, because they truly believe in a strong America. A strong America can accomplish what Reagan did with Communism. But it wasn't enough. Monetary policy, massive budget deficits, that wasn't enough for them either. After Katrina Bush looked like Lyndon Johnson, talking about how big government money can help the poor. That wasn't enough. A Republican White House that sounds like Jimmy Carter talking about conservation wasn't enough.

See, they had been waiting. Waiting for The Moment. The moment when they would finally enshrine their ideology into the Supreme Court for at least two generations. The Moment came. And it passed. They didn't get what they wanted. So why should they stay. Really, why should they stay? It's not going to get any better. Republicans have it all, and Conservatives got screwed again.

So, of these 30s, let's take a conservative estimate that half are Movement Conservatives. They, clearly, have now walked from him as well. Where will that leave Bush? With something just shy of 20% of the American public actually supporting him. That means roughly 4 in 5 Americans don't support this President.

Less than one year after being reelected, this Presidency has failed. It's over.