Awaiting a "defining moment" in the Bush presidency

NY Times has their latest update:

After a 22-month inquiry, the special counsel in the C.I.A. leak case, Patrick J. Fitzgerald, is expected to announce this week whether he will seek indictments against White House officials, a decision that is likely to be a defining moment of President Bush's second term.

Karl Rove, the senior White House adviser, and I. Lewis Libby Jr., who is Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, have been advised that they are in serious legal jeopardy in a case that began as a minor irritant for the president's aides but has grown into a raging conflagration for the White House.

So much for that famous bullhorn scene at ground zero. The Times is already looking at the impact of the indictments on the Bush legacy:

The negative effects on Mr. Bush's presidency from indictments of his senior aides, said James A. Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University in Washington, would be as great as the positive effects of Mr. Bush's handling of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

"This is the most important turning point for his administration in terms of turning down and losing support," Mr. Thurber said.

A weakened White House, he said, could lead to further infighting among the conservatives who provide most of Mr. Bush's legislative, grassroots and financial support, and could leave the administration with even less political clout to sway Democrats in Republican-leaning states to back Mr. Bush's agenda. In the Senate, Mr. Bush has depended on support from at least a few Democrats to push through many of his major initiatives.

Okay, if he's at 39% approval, and the indictments will cause him to lose support, how low can he go? Clearly, this is already a weak White House. If there are indictments, this week should mark the end of the Bush agenda, too.

And, ironically, this "defining moment" will probably come in the same week that another "defining moment" occurs in Iraq. The death toll currently stands at 1996...this week, it will very likely hit 2000.