Zogby's numbers and a bit of his analysis:
Summary
Kerry in Front in 5 States (CO, MN, OH, PA, WI);
Bush Drops to Lead in Only 3 States (FL, NM, NV);
Tied in Michigan (47%-47%), Iowa (45%-45%)
President Bush now trails Senator Kerry in Ohio, a state critical to Republican ambitions, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby ten-state battleground poll. Reliably-Democratic Michigan is also now in play, with the candidates tied at 47% apiece. The telephone polls of approximately 600 likely voters per state were conducted from Sunday through Wednesday (October 24-27, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
CO
Bush 46
Kerry 50
Zogby International is watching the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes very closely. A state with a Republican registration edge, a large military presence, a technology-heavy economy, two Republican senators, and that gave President Bush a solid victory four years ago, it continues to be a tight contest—and Zogby's polls coontinue to show the President behind.
FL
Bush 48
Kerry 46
IA
Bush 45
Kerry 45
MI
Bush 47
Kerry 47
Union-heavy Rust-Belt heavyweight Michigan, a state that Democrats are supposed to be able to count on in presidential elections, is now a dead heat—and a fact that the Democrats have to deal with lesss than a week from the election. Zogby International will be paying particular attention to this state for the next six days.
MN
Bush 44
Kerry 47
NM
Bush 47
Kerry 44
Mr. Bush's lead in New Mexico has eroded for a second straight day, to three points—less than the 5% of undecided vvoters, and a sign of some difficulties for the President in a state where Al Gore very narrowly bested him in 2000.
NV
Bush 51
Kerry 44
OH
Bush 45
Kerry 46
In a disturbing sign for the Republicans, Ohio—a state that no Republican has ever won the White House without winning first—is now leaning to Senator Kerry..... On the question of the country's direction, 50% of Ohioans say the country is on the wrong track, while 44% say the country is heading in the right direction.
PA
Bush 46
Kerry 49
Mr. Kerry is leading in Pennsylvania, a state Al Gore carried in 2000, when the governor was Bush loyalist Tom Ridge. Today, Democratic Governor Ed Rendell is poised to help Mr. Kerry win the state's 21 electoral votes—if he can hold his three-point eddge until election day.... On the question of the country's direction, 49% in Pennsylvania believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 48% say the country is going in the right direction.
WI
Bush 46
Kerry 50
Mr. Kerry has expanded his lead in Wisconsin, doubling his edge to four points overnight.
