This article by David Ignatius is a fascinating read which is about Denver Research Group and how they monitor news and information and make conclusions about trends. I've been wondering for a while now what the "tipping point" would be in this election and when it would happen. I was going mad with all of the hand wringers out there who were predicting doom and gloom for Kerry because my feeling was the the trends were working in favor of Kerry, regardless of what specific polls might have been saying. Let's keep the momentum going.
And what does McLean's giant Wurlitzer of information tell him about the debates? Like the conventional pollsters, he rated last Thursday night as a giant victory for John Kerry. The difference is that McLean's methodology allowed him to see this shift coming. His "tonality" measure for Kerry began to move up sharply just after Kerry gave a speech Sept. 20, outlining a four-point plan on Iraq. When Kerry performed well Thursday night, he was pushing on an open door.
Kerry couldn't reassure these uneasy voters until he had an alternative explanation of what the United States should do in Iraq. His "tonality," by McLean's measure, had collapsed in early August after the ad campaign by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth challenged his trump card of Vietnam service. It didn't recover until his Iraq speech, which reassured voters that Kerry had an alternative "plan" for the war, as he kept repeating Thursday night. The poll numbers didn't show the swing before the debate, but McLean's indicators did.
