Zogby: It's tied, 48-48
And my friend Joe just told me:
- Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: Kerry 48 - Bush 45 (Headline is "Kerry edges ahead in Iowa with boost from early voters")More from Zogby:
- Star Tribune Minnesota Poll: Kerry 49 - Bush 41
- Concord (NH) Monitor: Kerry 49 - Bush 46
The President leads among: investors (Bush 54%-Kerry 42%); men (Bush 51%-Kerry 45%); and Catholics (Bush 50%-Kerry 45%).
Senator Kerry leads among: non-investors (Kerry 52%-Bush 43%); 18-29 year olds (Kerry 61%-Bush 37%); and women (Kerry 50%-Bush 45%).
The favorable and unfavorable ratings for Mr. Bush have remained steady at 54% and 45% respectively. Senator Kerry's favorable and unfavorable also have not moved, they are still at 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable.
The President's overall job performance is holding steady at 46% approve and 53% disapprove.
The right direction percentage gains one point and is now 46% while wrong direction holds steady at 47%.
Mr. Bush's re-elect numbers climb a point to 47% with time for someone new remaining at 50%.
Pollster John Zogby: The race is enjoined fully. Each man has consolidated his own base. Bush has good leads in the Red States, among investors, and among Republicans, Born Again Christians, men, and married voters. He is right where he needs to be.
- Kerry has a solid lead in the Blue States, and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters, and singles.
-Each man's lead among each sub-group is precisely where it needs to be.
- Kerry leads among Independents by 8 points. Bush holds a 5-point lead among Catholics.
- But the President's job performance is 46% positive, 53% negative. Virtually the same percentage feels he deserves to be re-elected (47%), while 50% say it is time for someone new. And 46% think the nation is headed in the right direction, while 47% feel it is on the wrong track.
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1207 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 28 through October 30, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
