From Zogby Interactive, 9/21/04 (no link, sorry)
The race for President of the United States continued to tighten during the last two weeks, as President Bush continued his long, hard slog back toward parity with Democratic challenger John Kerry, throwing the race into a virtual dead heat, the latest package of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.
Based on individual polls conducted simultaneously Sept. 13-17 in 20 battleground states, neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Kerry hold a clear-cut lead in enough states to win the Electoral College votes required to capture the White House. Here’s the latest chart:
Two states remain too close to call: Florida (no surprise) and Arkansas, home to the former President Clinton, who has recently generated sympathy with his successful quadruple bypass surgery and headlines with his emergence as a chief advisor to Mr. Kerry, fielding strategic questions from his New York City hospital bed.
Arkansas, with 6 electoral votes, had been in the pocket of Mr.
Bush, who won it four years ago. By itself, it is unimportant in the presidential election. However, paired with one other small state, it could make all the difference in the world. Because the race is so close this year, every little state matters.
Undecided Florida and Arkansas together comprise 33 votes.
Missouri and Nevada have moved from the undecided category into the Bush camp since the last polling, done two weeks ago. Colorado also moved, albeit slightly, from the Kerry column to the Bush column, where it resided in the election four years ago.
The Electoral College count compiled in this report assumes that the 30 states not included in the package of surveys would go to the candidate of the party they supported in the 2000 election. Under this assumption, Mr. Bush begins with a base of 142 votes, compared to 172 for Mr. Kerry. In the 20 states in the polls, 224 Electoral College votes are up for grabs. Each state poll contains its own margin of error, as stated at the bottom of each state chart.
The winner of the election must amass 270 votes....
Pollster John Zogby: “Just before the Republican Convention I wrote in this column that the main problem that President George W. Bush faced was that he had to wage a three-front war to win re-election. He had to, first, bring his own numbers up. Second, he had to drive Senator John Kerry’s down.
And, finally, he had to try to dissuade undecided voters, who generally are not leaning his way, from voting at all.
“I also said that this was a difficult fete to achieve and maintained, as I have said since May, that this race was still Kerry’s to lose.
“My hat is off to the President. He had a good two weeks and was able to make notable progress on all three fronts. The President managed to raise all three of his key barometric readings – job performance, right direction for the country, and whether or not he deserves to be re-elected.
“More importantly, he has taken the offensive and dominated the language of this campaign. His chief strengths are his handling of the war on terrorism, his leadership and decisiveness, and his likability.
Over the past three weeks we have seen Mr. Bush lead the discussion. He and his team have also shown remarkable “Clintonian” capabilities to deal head-on with negative publicity and emerge triumphant. In the case of the CBS News’ “60 Minutes” and other reports about his Texas Air National Service (or lack of service), the onus has been now placed on CBS to recover from the real possibilities that forged documents were used.
“Mr. Kerry has been on the defensive. His desire to wage a battle based on his Vietnam War experience and his national security credentials has proven to be a wasted effort. Indeed, his numbers are down on his personal likability and his ability to handle the war on terrorism.
“But this battle is not over. I have already written about how this is not an eleven point race – and never really was. My last poll showed the President with a three point lead nationally and about 241 Electoral votes – less than the 270 needed to win. Mr. Kerry has 264 Electoral voters, but neither candidate has hefty enough leads overall or in many of the battleground states. The President is still posting a negative job performance rating, a negative wrong direction rating, and a negative re-elect – even though, as I said above, each of these improved. His 46% to 43% lead over Mr. Kerry is not good for an incumbent and comes only after basking in the glow of a successful convention and disarray in the Kerry campaign. In fact, the best that can be said of his 46% showing in the horse race is that it is better than 43%!”
