It's very interesting to see the details of this battleground state poll. I'm thinking more and more that Kerry needs to say "the country is going in the wrong direction, it's on the wrong track" - i.e., parrot the language of the polls. Also interesting is that those who worry most about "Iraq" favor Kerry, those who worry about "terror" favor Bush. Again, an intstructive lesson on word-smithing.
Six weeks before Election Day, the Republican incumbent leads the Massachusetts Democrat 45 percent to 44 percent among Coloradans. That's 8 points less than Bush's lead in April and well within the new poll's margin of error...
More than half the respondents - 53 percent - said the country is on the wrong track, compared to 42 percent who said it's going in the right direction. That's comparable to what the recent national poll found.
Coloradans who answered "wrong track" heavily favored Kerry. So did independent voters.
Kerry has eroded Colorado's Republican registration advantage by opening a 20-point lead, 50 to 30, over Bush among independents, the state's second-largest voting block. Both men are holding tightly to their party bases.
The senator has increased his overall standing with voters on four key issues since April. He's widened his edge over Bush on the question of who would best handle affordable health care, and he's taken the lead on handling the economy.
Bush rates comfortably higher on handling national security and "the situation in Iraq," though his advantage has shrunk in both areas. Poll respondents also prefer the president, 50 percent to 42 percent, as the country's commander in chief.
The poll showed what Weigel called "a cultural divide" among Colorado voters. For example:
• Bush leads by 10 points among veterans and their family members and among people who know someone who has served in Iraq or Afghanistan in the past year.
Kerry leads by 6 points in households without a veteran and by 11 points among people who don't know any troops serving in the Middle East.
• Kerry leads by 36 points among Hispanic voters. Bush leads by 8 points among white voters.
• A gender gap persists: Bush leads by 7 points among men and Kerry leads by the same margin among women.
Issues divided respondents even more dramatically.
The poll asked people what topic mattered most to them in picking a president. Topping the list were terrorism and national security (23 percent), economy and jobs (23 percent) and the Iraq situation (16 percent).
Those who picked Iraq were twice as likely to favor Kerry, 56 percent to 25.
Those who picked terrorism and security overwhelmingly backed Bush, 81 percent to 14.
Those who chose the economy gave Kerry a huge edge, 70 percent to 17.
Kerry's path to victory is ripping Bush on the economy, Weigel said - and Bush's is blasting Kerry on security.
Equally important in the close race, analysts agree, is which side gets more supporters to the ballot box.
