Likely Voters: A Silver Lining

Here's an attempt at positive spin on the no-bounce Democratic Convention. Polls are starting to focus in on "likely voters." Everyone defines this grooup slightly differently. But basically, it includes asking the person you're polling if they voted in the last election, do they know where their local polling station is, etc. It's safe to assume that NOT having voted in the last election makes you much less likely to be considered a "likely voter." As pointed out on "Real Time With Bill Maher" on HBO, the American public is focused on politics with a real passion not seen perhaps since Vietnam. There is probably a significant percentage of Americans who didn't vote in 2000 who are now bound and determined to do so -- it's a post 9/11 world, they're angry about Iraq, they saw Michael Moore's movie, or whatever. If just one percent of the population feels driven to vote in 2004 and they didn't vote in 2000, that's three million votes, enough to turn a victory on either side into an electoral landslide. And there's a good chance that shift, that passion to vote -- be it "Throw the bum out" or "God bless George Bush" -- won't be reflected in the polls.